Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drier Conditions for Wheat Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dry conditions next week in the Plains and widespread rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN MIDWEST

A weak system will move across the Midwest through the weekend, producing scattered showers. Another round of chilly air moves through next week behind a stronger cold front with some showers around the Great Lakes. Rains will provide a drink for some winter wheat areas and should be weak enough to not delay harvest in too many areas.

DROUGHT INCREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated to scattered showers moved through the Central Plains on Thursday as a system moved out of the Rockies. Showers were mostly light outside of a couple of patches in Kansas and far southwest Nebraska. Showers exit on Friday with dry conditions over the weekend and increasing temperatures next week, a poor combination for winter wheat planting and establishment, or soil recharge for pastures.

DRYING OUT IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains on Thursday and continue Friday. Outside of a few patches, showers were pretty light and spotty, with little impact to corn or soybean harvest, or soil recharge for pastures. After Friday, the region turns much drier for next week. Temperatures will rise above normal again next week.

DRIER AND HOT IN THE DELTA, EYES TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN

Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures through the weekend will help crops in the Delta toward maturity and improve quality. Showers should largely be absent, with a slight chance across the region on Sunday. Still, conditions will be good for maturing and harvesting crops. Eyes will remain focused on Tropical Depression 9 and its development over the weekend, which could bring it into the central Gulf of Mexico early next week.

SOME SHOWERS FOR REMAINING CANADIAN PRAIRIES HARVEST

Recent showers in the Canadian Prairies have been unfavorable for harvest but are adding some soil moisture recharge in a few spots. A few showers continue into Saturday before largely drying up for next week and a return to much better harvest conditions sets back up.

WIDESPREAD RAINS IN BRAZIL

Showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for Brazil as planting increases. Another front Sunday into next week will add to rain totals, especially in central Brazil. Colder temperatures are moving into the region, but frosts are not forecast.

CONTINUED DRYNESS AND COLD IN ARGENTINA

Cooler temperatures have led to some scattered frosts over the last couple of mornings in Argentina. Dryness and cool temperatures have pushed the first phase of corn planting back by quite a bit and may have damaged wheat. Some showers may drift through the country over the next week but will be very isolated and not overly helpful.

MORE FAVORABLE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Recent showers have done well to fill soils in the Black Sea region but have also delayed fall harvest. Periods of showers will pop up across the region through the weekend. It becomes a bit drier next week, but periods of showers will still move through, especially in Ukraine.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick