Commodities Market Impact Weather

Fall Front Continues Southeast

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dry weather in the southwestern Plains and widespread rains in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN MIDWEST

Limited showers continue in the Midwest for the rest of the week with a front moving through Wednesday and a weak system moving through Friday through the weekend. Cooler temperatures are moving in behind the first system and another burst of chilly air is expected next week. Rains will provide a drink for some winter wheat areas and should be weak enough to not delay harvest in too many areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front moving through the Central and Southern Plains and a system riding along and north of it for Thursday and Friday will produce scattered showers for the region, mostly across the north. The southwestern Plains wheat areas are not forecast to see much of any precipitation. With temperatures likely to rise above normal next week, drought continues to have a huge influence on planting and establishment for wheat and is limiting for moisture recharge for pastures.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A few showers linger in the Northern Plains early Wednesday. More showers are expected Thursday through Saturday with another system moving through. These showers will be hit-or-miss and should not have much of an impact on corn or soybean harvest, or soil recharge for pastures. Cooler temperatures in place will not last long, rising above normal again next week.

DRIER AND HOT IN THE DELTA

In the Delta, dry conditions and above-normal temperatures through the weekend will help crops toward maturity and improve quality. Showers should largely be absent, with a slight chance over northern areas on Thursday and across the region on Sunday. Still, conditions will be good for maturing and harvesting crops.

SOME SHOWERS FOR REMAINING CANADIAN PRAIRIES HARVEST

Recent showers in the Canadian Prairies have been somewhat unfavorable for harvest but are adding some soil moisture recharge in a few spots. Some showers may be possible in spots late Thursday into the weekend before largely drying up for next week.

WIDESPREAD RAINS IN BRAZIL

Recent showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for southern Brazil as planting increases. A front remains quite active this week for most of the agricultural areas, favoring increased soil moisture and the potential start to the wet season in central Brazil. However, the daily showers we expect to come along with the wet season may be a couple of weeks away. Another front this Sunday into next week could add to rain totals, especially in central Brazil.

CONTINUED DRYNESS AND COLD IN ARGENTINA

Cooler temperatures in Argentina are leading to some scattered frosts. Dryness and cool temperatures have pushed the first phase of corn planting back by quite a bit and may have damaged wheat. Some showers may drift through the country over the next week but will be very isolated and not overly helpful.

MORE FAVORABLE RAIN FOR BLACK SEA WHEAT PLANTING

Recent showers have done well to fill soils in the Black Sea region but have also delayed fall harvest. Periods of showers will pop up across the region through the weekend. It becomes a bit drier next week, but periods of showers will still move through, especially in Ukraine.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick