Commodities Market Impact Weather

Hot West, Cool East for the Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A cold front moving through the country and heat returning to the Plains are the short-term weather factors driving the market Tuesday.

MIDWEST COOLER WITH OCCASIONAL RAINS

A front will continue to sag south through the Midwest early this week with more rainfall through Wednesday in areas that would benefit from some dryness. Behind the front, it will get much drier with cool temperatures going into the weekend. Western areas should warm up more later this week, making for a chance of rain across Minnesota and maybe Iowa Thursday night and Friday. More isolated showers will be possible this weekend into next week.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HEATING BACK UP

A front continues to gradually slide south through the Plains this week, bringing in more seasonable temperatures for a couple of days and scattered showers. Showers are unlikely to be widespread with limited impact on drought, and temperatures will rise again later this week and weekend, stressing crops further.

HOT WITH LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A front went through the Northern Plains over the weekend with scattered showers. A couple of areas saw heavy rain, but most saw light to moderate rain. Above-normal temperatures are spreading back into the region this week and should continue into next week. Heavier rain will be possible Thursday and Friday across the Dakotas. There is another chance for some isolated showers over the weekend. Soil moisture is starting to run thin in a lot of areas, making some of these rain chances more important for filling corn and soybeans.

FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A front will sag south through the Delta over the next couple of days, offering chances for scattered showers and more seasonable temperatures. Crops in this area are more developed and have been dealing with heat stress all summer. A week of relief will not be enough to reverse prospects. More rain and seasonable temperatures are needed. Models are mixed on if showers will return next week or not but are favoring cooler temperatures.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST STAYING HOT

Heat moving back into the Pacific Northwest looks to continue for the next couple of weeks. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times this week, but overall, the region will be drier as well. Stress continues to mount for the end of the growing season for spring wheat while conditions are more favorable for winter wheat harvest.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES STAYING DRIER

A couple of systems are moving through the Canadian Prairies over the next week but will only offer light precipitation in most cases. Southwestern areas could use more precipitation, but time is running out for rain to be helpful as harvest starts up in more advanced areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

A front stalled over southern Brazil will bring scattered showers through Wednesday, keeping soil moisture high as wheat continues to move into reproduction. The showers will get into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, which could disrupt the remaining corn harvest in these areas.

ARGENTINA WHEAT LACKING SOIL MOISTURE

Some isolated showers came to southern Argentina wheat areas over the weekend. But dry weather is forecast for this week, which continues to be unfavorable for wheat establishment and development.

HEAT BUILDING FOR THE BLACK SEA

Above-normal temperatures across the Black Sea region this weekend helped to dry soils and wheat for harvest. A front moved into northwestern areas and stalled but will wash out over the next couple of days as the heat continues to be favorable for wheat harvest. Soil moisture in the region is good overall, and the heat will help to accelerate corn and sunflower filling.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE CONTINUES

Heat across much of Europe the last several weeks has caused widespread stress and damage to summer crops. An upper-level system is forming off the tail end of a cold front in eastern areas of the continent this week. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler and bring scattered showers to this part of the continent. But across the west, stress will continue through the weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick