Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A period of active weather going through the U.S. and the end of a period of favorable showers in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

SOGGY EASTERN MIDWEST CONTINUES

Scattered showers and a few severe thunderstorms moved through the Midwest over the weekend. Moderate to heavy rain continues near the Ohio River Monday, along with a band of light to moderate snow to the north. Renewed flood risks and continued soggy soils keep producers from planting any time soon across the far south. Temperatures will fall behind an arctic front later this week but will be short-lived as the cold spreads farther east over the weekend. More showers are anticipated with this system as well.

COLD FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers fell across much of the Southern Plains this weekend. There were some light showers across the southwest drought areas, but many areas also remained dry. Colder temperatures have settled in, but an arctic front moving through mid- to late-week will bring in even colder air, causing many areas to remain below freezing for more than a 24-hour period. This front will produce some showers, but the cold temperatures could cause frost damage to wheat that has been coming out of dormancy due to warmer temperatures recently.

MORE SHOWERS COMING TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Showers pushed south of the Pacific Northwest over the weekend, but precipitation over the last week favored drought reduction. A system in the middle of the week will produce more widespread showers as well.

ARCTIC BLAST FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers fell across the Northern Plains over the weekend, mostly across South Dakota with some light to moderate snow. A front will move through on Tuesday with cold, arctic air spilling through the region for several days but rising this weekend. The cold may also cause some snow in the High Plains drought areas.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVED FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers fell across most of Brazil over the weekend, increasing soil moisture for safrinha corn development. Waves of showers will move across the country through the week, but move north of southern areas over the weekend, returning this portion of the region to dryness. Dryness that is forecast for the second half of March may undo some of the beneficial rainfall over the first half of the month.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA END THIS WEEK

Scattered showers fell across much of Argentina over the weekend, continuing the trend of good showers recently. One final system will push showers north into Brazil late this week, returning the country to dryness conditions. Rains may have some benefit to late-planted corn and soybeans, but the dryness that is forecast to follow will rob the benefits.

BLACK SEA WORRIES OUTSIDE OF WAR

Conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development once temperatures allow. Cold temperatures this week, especially late week going into next week, will keep wheat mostly dormant.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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