Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Hot and dry conditions early this week that will change to showery weather at least in the Plains and more active weather across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

HOT MIDWEST TURNING SHOWERY

Scattered showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend but were mostly light. And temperatures increased steadily, helping soils that got soggy last week to dry out. Dry and hot will be notable conditions for much of the week, promoting harvest. Showers will move into western areas late this week, then through the rest of the region this weekend or early next week. This could hinder harvest progress should this system be able to slip under the ridge in Canada.

SHOWERS AFTER HOT START IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Dry and hot conditions were noted in the Southern Plains over the weekend, excellent for harvest progress, but continuing to sap soil moisture for winter wheat. A weakness in a developing ridge will allow showers to bubble up on Wednesday and continue through at least this weekend. That could provide much better soil moisture for winter wheat but will hamper harvest progress a bit. Temperatures will remain elevated where showers do not occur, which may cause further heat stress.

SCATTERED MIDWEEK SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Dry and hot conditions were noted in the Northern Plains over the weekend, excellent for harvest progress, but worsening the drought. A system will move into the region in the middle of the week with scattered showers, but the effects should be short-lived. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain well above normal for the next ten days.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS HINDERING DELTA HARVEST

Dry and hot conditions were noted in the Delta over the weekend, benefiting harvest of cotton and soybeans. Some pop-up showers may develop over the next week that could hinder harvest progress but would benefit winter wheat should it occur.

BENEFICIAL SOUTHEAST HARVEST WEATHER

Warm and dry conditions in the Southeast over the weekend promoted maturing cotton and continued harvest progress. For the most part, these conditions should continue for the next week.

COOLER AND DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, benefiting winter wheat establishment, but holding back progress on corn and sunflower harvest. A large blocking high pressure system will keep the region cool and dry this week and Russia continues to need more rain for winter wheat.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers developed over central Brazil over the weekend, but more rain is needed to officially start the wet season in many places. Whether official or not, scattered showers over central areas this week should promote soybean planting. Scattered showers will come with a couple of systems across the south this week, which will be beneficial for all crops.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Dry weather was noted in Argentina this weekend and more is needed for corn and soybean planting and establishment. Two systems will develop with scattered showers this week, but some areas look like they will be missed. An active pattern is in place, however, and there will be more systems coming up.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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