USDA Reports Preview

Just a couple of speaking events into the new winter season and the No. 1 question is already obvious: When is USDA going to account for the problems we're seeing in cornfields?

I have to admit I don't know, but I am fairly confident it will not happen in Tuesday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, as there is no NASS survey to support a new crop estimate in December. Information is being gathered for the Crop Production and WASDE reports on Jan. 10, but with over 1 billion bushels (bb) still unharvested and much of that sitting in snow-covered fields, it seems likely final crop estimates for 2019 will have to wait.

CORN

Just one month ago, USDA reduced its corn crop estimate from 13.78 bb to 13.66 bb, leaving harvested acres at 81.8 million and trimming the yield from 168.4 bushels per acre (bpa) to 167.0 bpa.

The resulting estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks fell only slightly, to 1.91 bb, as the corn demand estimate was cut by 100 million bushels (mb). Unfortunately, corn exports haven't improved much since the November report and are likely to come down 50 mb more in December.

Dow Jones' analyst survey expects 1.859 bb of U.S. ending corn stocks for 2019-20, but keep in mind that many of the estimates are for the season and not necessarily about what USDA will say Tuesday. DTN Contributing Analyst Joel Karlin of Western Milling still has the low ending stocks estimate at 1.479 bb.

From a world view, analysts expect ending corn stocks to be reduced slightly, from 296.0 million metric tons (mmt) to 295.60 mmt, or 11.64 bb. One interesting number to watch Tuesday will be USDA's estimate of world corn demand, last pegged at 1,126.27 mmt, or 44.34 bb, in 2019-20. We will also be watching for any changes in USDA's corn export estimates among Brazil, Argentina or Ukraine.

SOYBEANS

For U.S. soybeans, Dow Jones' analysts expect U.S. ending stocks to stay close to November's estimate of 475 mb. As with corn, there is room to show some crop loss later, but crop estimates are not likely to be addressed Tuesday.

Unlike corn, U.S. soybean exports have been more active in 2019-20 with total export commitments now up 8% from a year ago. USDA's export estimate is not likely to change this time around, but the crush estimate could see a small increase.

For world soybean stocks, Dow Jones' survey expects a small increase, from 95.0 mmt to 96.2 mmt (3.53 bb) with room for a slight increase in Brazil's already large 123.0 mmt (4.52 bb) crop estimate. In November, USDA estimated Brazil will only have 141 mb of soybeans on hand Jan. 31, 2020, the end of the current local season.

WHEAT

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, any changes in USDA estimates for wheat are apt to be slight on Tuesday and will likely come from crop estimates for other countries. Dow Jones survey expects ending stocks of U.S. wheat to be reduced from 1.014 bb to 1.000 bb in 2019-20, a beneficial adjustment that should not have much impact on prices.

For world ending wheat stocks, Dow Jones' survey expects a modest reduction, from 288.3 mmt to 286.3 mmt (10.52 bb) -- a large enough number to still represent a record high.

Minor tweaks are expected for foreign crops and there is room for slight reductions for Canada, Australia and Argentina, but nothing that is likely to significantly change the outlook for wheat prices.

DTN typically has a webinar following the WASDE report, but on Tuesday, Dec. 10, we will have a Facebook Live broadcast from DTN's Ag Summit in Chicago, starting around 11:45 a.m. CST. Join us at www.facebook.com/dtnprogressivefarmer to hear a brief discussion of USDA's latest estimates.

We don't anticipate big changes in Tuesday's numbers, but a surprise is always possible.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20
	Dec	Average	High	Low	Nov
Corn		1,859	1,960	1,479	1,911
Soybeans		472	522	345	475
Wheat		1,000	1,050	913	1,014
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20
	Dec	Avg.	High	Low	Nov
Corn		295.6	298.2	292.0	296.0
Soybeans		96.2	101.9	94.0	95.4
Wheat		286.3	288.5	283.9	288.3

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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