DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- For the first week of November 2019, the majority of retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN continue to show lower prices compared to a month earlier.

Five of the eight major fertilizers were lower in price from a month earlier, although none were significantly lower. DAP had an average price of $462/ton, MAP $471/ton, urea $396/ton, anhydrous $499/ton and UAN28 $249/ton.

The remaining three fertilizers were slightly higher from last month. Potash had an average price of $384/ton, 10-34-0 $473/ton and UAN32 $289/ton.

Here are a couple interesting tidbits gleaned from examining the price data.

Urea's average price dropped to under $400/ton for the first time since the second week of October 2018 when the price was $396/ton. Another fact, the average anhydrous price was below $500/ton for the first time since the third week of Ocober 2018 when the price was also at $499/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.43/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.45/lb.N.

Nitrogen is leading retail fertilizer prices lower this fall, according to a recent report in the Agricultural Economic Insights e-newsletter. Author and Ag Economist David Widmar wrote that prices were lower this fall after rising in early 2019.

"In recent weeks, fertilizer prices have sharply declined," Widmar wrote. "Compared to prices last spring -- the average of prices reported in April and May -- anhydrous ammonia prices are down 22% and DAP 17%. Potash prices have also declined (-5%)."

Not all nitrogen prices have fallen equally, he wrote. Anhydrous ammonia has fallen the most at -22% while urea (-8%) and UAN28 (-10%) have seen smaller adjustments. The report utilizes USDA Illinois fertilizer data.

Widmar said another way to consider fertilizer prices is the expense associated with a 180-70-70 fertilizer rate. Between 2011 and 2013 this example had an expense of $160 per acre. By 2017 this example had declined to $101 per acre.

In the spring of 2019 this fertilizer rate was at $120 per acre, the highest price since 2015 but lower than 2011-2013 level. The price in September 2019 was at $99 per acre, he wrote.

"Producers should also consider the relative cost of various nitrogen sources," he wrote. "As a result of anhydrous ammonia falling sharply in recent weeks, urea and UAN28 prices are historically high relative to anhydrous."

Half of the fertilizers are lower in price from a year ago while the other half are now higher.

MAP is now 11% less expensive, DAP is 8% lower, anhydrous is 4% less expensive and urea is 3% lower from last year at this time. UAN32 is 1% higher, UAN28 is 2% more expensive, 10-34-0 is 3% higher and potash is 4% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Nov 5-9 2018	506	529	368	407
Dec 3-7 2018	501	529	369	410
Dec 31-Jan 4 2019	508	533	381	407
Jan 28-Feb 1 2019	513	536	384	407
Feb 25-Mar 01 2019	511	535	386	404
Mar 25-29 2019	509	534	385	401
Apr 22-26 2019	497	530	388	408
May 20-24 2019	497	527	392	428
Jun 17-21 2019	496	532	392	435
Jul 15-19, 2019	497	532	392	430
Aug 12-16 2019	493	503	387	413
Sep 9-13 2019	486	482	385	407
Oct 7-11, 2019	472	473	383	403
Nov 4-8 2019	462	471	384	396
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Nov 5-9 2018	458	517	245	287
Dec 3-7 2018	457	524	249	293
Dec 31-Jan 4 2019	460	571	267	304
Jan 28-Feb 1 2019	468	585	271	313
Feb 25-Mar 01 2019	470	596	270	318
Mar 25-29 2019	470	597	269	318
Apr 22-26 2019	483	594	268	315
May 20-24 2019	487	595	270	314
Jun 17-21 2019	487	589	270	318
Jul 15-19, 2019	485	585	275	317
Aug 12-16 2019	475	543	258	295
Sep 9-13 2019	471	516	253	289
Oct 7-11, 2019	470	509	253	289
Nov 4-8 2019	473	499	249	289

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(CZ)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.