Commodities Market Impact Weather

Variable Rain Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A variable Midwest rain forecast through late April, and continued favorable conditions in Brazil and Argentina, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

MIXED MIDWEST RAIN PROSPECT

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate to heavy rain for the eastern Midwest Thursday and Friday, disrupting spring fieldwork. Drier conditions elsewhere will allow for some progress. Temperatures will be seasonal to below normal over northern and central areas and above normal south and east. The Easter holiday weekend will be mostly dry, with the next chance of showers indicated early next week.

VARIABLE IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, the Red River in North Dakota and Minnesota remains in moderate-to-major flood stages following prior snowmelt and recent precipitation. The weather pattern is drier than normal for at least the next seven days, allowing for slow improvement with time. The below-normal rainfall pattern suggests an early or on-time start to seasonal fieldwork, outside of areas very near the Red River.

ACTIVE SOUTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

In the Southern Plains, soil moisture remains adequate to surplus for developing winter wheat. Crop ratings continue to improve. Severe weather and locally heavy rain occurred in southeastern areas Wednesday. Additional severe storms are expected late in the five-day or early in the six- to 10-day period. This includes the risk of strong wind gusts, hail and tornadoes.

STORMS AHEAD FOR DELTA

Across the Delta, another moderate-to-heavy rain event is expected during Thursday, followed by at least one more heavy rain event during the next week to 10 days. The region has a significant percentage of surplus soil moisture with some risk of severe flooding. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely. Severe weather is likely to occur in southern and eastern areas with this stormy pattern.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL CONDITIONS

The Brazil weather pattern is again mostly favorable for second-crop (safrinha) corn, sugarcane and coffee from Parana northward due to periods of rain and warm weather. Rain in Rio Grande do Sul early this week may mean delays to soybean harvest.

RAINS FOR CENTRAL ARGENTINA

In central Argentina, thunderstorms are expected to form over Cordoba before moving to north Argentina this weekend. Heavy thunderstorms appear likely in north Argentina and Paraguay. This will affect the harvest of soybeans and cotton. There are no significant concerns, at this time, for mature crops or harvesting in major growing areas of Cordoba, Santa Fe or Buenos Aires.

BENEFICIAL BLACK SEA MOISTURE

In the Black Sea region, recent rainfall is favorable for maintaining soil moisture for winter grains.

CONTINUED EASTERN AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

Eastern Australia wheat areas still need more rain to ease drought conditions. Meanwhile, Western Australia has an increase in showers ahead, which offers some improved moisture for wheat planting.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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