DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn closed up 1 cent per bushel and December corn was up 1/4 cent. March soybeans closed up 3/4 cent and November soybeans were up 3/4 cent. March K.C. wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was down 3/4 cent. The March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.260 at 95.560. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 95.64 points at 25,159.53. April gold is down $3.70 at $1,318.40, March silver is down $0.06 at $15.88 and March copper is up $0.0255 at $2.7985. March crude oil is down $0.71 at $54.55, March heating oil is down $0.0076, March RBOB is down $0.0026 and March natural gas is down $0.065.

Corn:

March corn ended up a penny at $3.79 1/4 Monday, another day of quiet trading as futures prices hold tightly within a narrow, sideways range. Monday's steady trade was a bit surprising, as the latest seven-day forecast looks more favorable for Brazil's safrinha corn crop, anticipating more rain in the northern and northeastern crop areas. Brazil's FOB corn prices are near their lowest levels in four months, reflecting a better outlook for crops. U.S. prices however, stayed in a narrow range on light volume and showed no sign of backing down Monday. Here in the U.S., snow in the north-central U.S. is expected to push down to the central Midwest on Thursday, temporarily disrupting travel. Earlier Monday, USDA said 35.5 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 51% in 2018-19 from a year ago. For now, the trend in cash corn remains up, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.49 Friday, down from its highest level in seven months and 29 cents below the March contract. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index was up 0.26, staying supported in a sideways range. Metals and energy futures were mostly lower, while most ag commodities were higher.

Soybeans:

March soybeans ended up 3/4 cent at $9.18 1/2 Monday, finding no argument for a small gain on light volume. It was nice to see daily export sales reported again early Monday. USDA said 22.5 million bushels (612,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China for 2018-19, probably part of a 5 mmt sale that has been widely talked about recently. Of course, China's purchases help U.S. soybean demand, but more are needed. USDA said 35.9 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections down 38% in 2018-19 from a year ago and well below USDA's pace for 1.900 billion bushels of soybean exports. The soybean harvest is still early in Brazil where private crop estimates have dropped below the government statistics agency Conab's 118.8 mmt estimate since Jan. 10. In Argentina, crop conditions are mostly favorable in spite of early flooding in some areas. With a lot riding on the outcome of trade talks with China, the trend for cash soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.28 Friday, staying below the old July high of $8.41 and $0.90 below the March contract.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents at $5.10 1/2 Monday with lighter volume than Friday. Winter storms will pass through the Midwestern U.S. this week and will bring plenty of precipitation to SRW wheat areas, but will mostly miss the HRW wheat areas of the southwestern U.S. Plains. Temperatures will be cold again in the central Midwest this week, but not as cold as last week and should not be a significant threat to winter wheat areas. Earlier Monday, USDA said 16.2 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections down 11% in 2018-19 from a year ago. When it comes to export sales, USDA still has a lot of updating to do and will be current by Feb. 22, if the federal government remains open. For now, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheats are up, while the trend in cash SRW wheat is sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.85 Friday, 23 cents under the March contract and down from its highest prices in five months. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.98, down from its highest prices in five months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.