DTN Early Word Grains

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

May corn was 1/4 cent higher, May soybeans were 2 1/2 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 4 cents higher.

CME Globex Recap:

After Monday's big losses in the grain sector, Tuesday is off to a quieter start with small early gains to start the day. The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.32 and most other commodities are mixed.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 335.60 points (-1.3%) lower at 24,610.91, the NASDAQ Composite was 137.75 points (-1.8%) higher at 7,344.24, and the S&P 500 dropped 39.09 points (-1.4%) to 2,712.92 Monday. DJIA futures were 11 points lower early Tuesday morning. Asian markets were mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 99.93 points (-0.5%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 36.17 points (0.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite up 11.39 points (.3%). European markets were also mixed with London's FTSE 100 up 13.55 points (0.2%), Germany's DAX down 2.12 points (-0.0%), and France's CAC 40 down 2.46 points (-0.1%). The euro was 0.00485 lower at 1.23950 while the U.S. dollar index was up 0.32 at 89.65. March 30-year T-Bonds were down 12/32nds at 144'05 while April gold was down $6.00 at $1,311.80. Crude oil was $0.52 higher at $62.65 as Brent crude was up $0.56 at $66.61. China's Dalian soybeans were steady to mixed and May Malaysian palm oil futures were up 0.5% overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Corn's recent sell-off could be helpful to the pace of U.S. corn exports.	1)	Weekly stochastic indicators turned lower for corn, soybeans, meal, and both winter wheats.
2)	In spite of limited rain over the weekend, Argentina's forecast remains mostly dry and stressful to row crops.	2)	Heavy noncommercial net-longs in corn and soybeans remain under pressure to liquidate.
3)	Spring wheat was caught in Monday's wide selling net, but doesn't have the same problem of heavily bullish trader positions the others have.	3)	Record high world ending wheat stocks continue to be a problem for U.S. wheat exports.

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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN May corn is up 1/4 cent within a narrow overnight trading range as Monday's selling seems to have subsided, at least for now. There are still plenty of things we do not yet know about 2018, starting with how big Brazil's corn crop will be, estimated somewhere between 89.0 and 94.5 mmt (3.5 to 3.7 bb). Argentina's forecast remains mostly dry this week with chances for rain in the eastern part of the country. Closer to home, the central U.S. will be mostly dry the next few days, more favorable for transporting grain with temperatures gradually warming. Technically, May corn has lost its upward momentum as the weekly stochastic has turned bearish.

SOYBEANS May soybeans are up 2 1/2 cents early, finding a small bounce after Monday's 27-cent drop. The rally from early January to early March was based on Argentina's unexpected dry weather and row crops there are still not finding much rain, but the surprise is wearing off and noncommercial traders now find themselves heavily net long in soybeans with plenty of bearish risks ahead. Brazil's soybean harvest continues to make progress and this week's forecast looks favorable with limited areas of light to moderate rain expected. Here in the U.S., USDA's Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will be released on Mar. 29 and both will probably have bearish news with 90 million acres or more of soybean plantings expected. Technically, the weekly stochastic has turned bearish as the previous rally has lost its upward momentum.

WHEAT July K.C. wheat is up 4 cents early, taking a small piece back of Monday's 28 1/2 cent drop. DTN's map of 24 hour rainfall accumulation shows mostly light amounts around Kansas with some pockets as high as 3/4 inch. While that was enough to trigger noncommercial liquidation on Monday, it is not enough to erase drought concerns in the region, especially in northern Texas where no precipitation fell and temperatures are expected in the 90s on Friday. Tuesday's seven-day forecast still doesn't have much rain expected for the southwestern U.S. Plains as the best chances end at eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Technically, the weekly stochastics have turned bearish for Chicago and K.C. wheat, but given the fact that drought will continue to be a concern, it will be interesting to see if prices can regain support.

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.38	-$0.07	-$0.37	May	$0.010
Soybeans:	$9.44	-$0.27	-$0.78	May	$0.003
SRW Wheat:	$4.18	-$0.16	-$0.32	May	$0.007
HRW Wheat:	$4.28	-$0.28	-$0.42	May	$0.010
HRS Wheat:	$5.77	-$0.15	-$0.19	May	$0.002

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Todd can be followed throughout the day on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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