DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 cents in the March contract and up 2 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 7 1/2 cents in the March contract and up 5 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 4 cents in the March Chicago contract, down 4 1/4 cents in the March Kansas City, and down 1 1/4 cents in the March Minneapolis contract. The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.54 at 90.19. February gold is up $3.90 at $1,338.80 while March silver is up 8 cents and March copper is down $0.0005. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 30 points at 25,833. February crude oil is down $0.43 at $63.87. February heating oil is down $0.0197 while February RBOB gasoline is down $0.0119 and February natural gas is down $0.055.

Corn:

March corn closed up 2 cents Tuesday, hanging onto an early attempt at higher prices while potential buyers continue to struggle to find a reason to own corn. Friday's higher yield estimate of 176.6 bushels per acre from USDA did not help the case for higher corn prices and so far, the export pace has been slow in 2017-18. Tuesday morning, USDA said 23.0 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, another bearish amount that has total inspections down 36% in 2017-18 from a year ago. The main concern keeping traders bearish of course, is the 2.48 billion bushels of U.S. ending corn stocks USDA estimates. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials more bearish in corn as of Jan. 9, increasing net shorts from 69,731 to 86,714. Commercials increased net longs to 68,662, still offering support as March corn stays near its contract low. For now, the trend in March corn remains down. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.14 Friday, priced 33 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in four months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.54, its lowest spot price in over three years and bullish influence for grains to start the week.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed up 7 1/2 cents Tuesday, even after Argentina received beneficial rains over the weekend. Friday's slightly smaller soybean harvest estimate of 4.39 billion bushels from USDA may have also helped Tuesday's prices, but more credit likely goes to commercial buying in soybean meal and surprising eagerness among commercials to be long soybean futures. Friday's CFTC data showed commercials increased net longs for a fourth week, hitting 97,040 as of Jan. 9, the most since June. Noncommercials in soybeans were a little more bearish with 65,433 net shorts. Tuesday morning, Dow Jones reported the National Oilseed Processors Association said 166.4 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in December, a new record high for the month and 4% more than a year ago. Earlier, USDA said 45.2 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, another bearish amount that still has total inspections down 14% in 2017-18 from a year ago. For now, the trend in March soybeans remains down, countered by commercial eagerness for owning soybeans. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.90 Friday, up from a three-month low and priced 71 cents below the March contract.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed down 4 cents and March K.C. wheat was down 4 1/4 cents Tuesday with traders showing no concern about the recent return of bitter cold temperatures to the U.S. Southern Plains. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bearish in Chicago wheat as of Jan. 9 with 78,378 net shorts. Commercials were net long with 80,285 contracts. Friday's increase in USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks, to 989 million bushels, gave traders another reason to stay away from the long side of wheat this winter -- at least until these cold and dry weather challenges can be better assessed in the spring. For now, the trend in winter wheat remains sideways with no bullish fundamental argument to help prices trade higher. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.89 Friday, priced 32 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.80, down from its highest price in five months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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