DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/2 cent in the March contract and up 1/2 cent in the July. Soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents in the January contract and down 5 1/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 1 cent in the March Chicago contract, up 3/4 cent in the March Kansas City, and down 1 cent in the March Minneapolis contract. The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.19 at 93.05. February gold is down $1.50 at $1,264.00 while March silver is down 6 cents and March copper is up $0.0015. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 31 at 24,761. February crude oil is up $0.31 at $57.53. February heating oil is up $0.0119 while February RBOB gasoline is up $0.0186 and February natural gas is down $0.049.

Corn:

March corn ended up a half-cent at $3.47 1/2 Tuesday, not finding much news to change anyone's minds about the positions they are holding. If trading seems quieter than normal for corn this year, it is. The trading range in spot corn the past 12 months is only 20% of the year's low, the smallest percentage range since 1992. Here in the Corn Belt, the weather is pleasant for anyone who wants to move grain, but prices are not enticing, stuck near their lowest spot levels in 11 years. In South America, a broad coverage of light to moderate showers are expected to help crops in both Brazil and Argentina. With U.S. corn supplies plentiful, the current export pace slow, and crops doing generally well down south, March corn remains in a downtrend, supported only by commercials finding economic benefit from these low prices. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.09 Monday, priced 38 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in two months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.19 and other commodities are mixed.

Soybeans:

January soybeans fell 5 1/2 cents to another new three-month low at $9.56 on Tuesday as noncommercial traders show signs of losing their bullish hope. There are still concerns of dryness in parts of southern Brazil and Argentina, but the forecast for the week ahead expects a broad coverage of light to moderate showers over the main soybean crop areas. As USDA is expecting Brazil to end the current season with only 145 million bushels of soybeans on Jan. 31, a lot is riding on the size of the next crop to keep soybean supplies flowing and, so far, it is looking like Brazil will come through with another big harvest in early 2018. Technically, January soybeans have been showing bearish changes of momentum since falling back from their four-month high earlier this month. Monday's new three-month low officially marked a bearish change of trend that goes along with the current bearish outlook for South America's crops. At 8 a.m. CST, USDA announced 5.3 million bushels (145,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown for 2018-2019. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.92 Monday, priced 69 cents below the January contract and within three cents of its November low.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed a penny lower Tuesday at $4.19 1/2, also not finding much news to trade on with Christmas six days away. Tuesday's weather map showed rain helping some of the drought-stricken areas around eastern Texas and Arkansas. The rain is expected to move eastward with heavier amounts through Wednesday. The rest of the southwestern U.S. Plains will be mostly dry with sub-freezing temperatures creeping southward into Kansas as soon as early Wednesday. It won't be the first time winter wheat saw dry weather and freezing temperatures and, as we can see, noncommercial traders are showing no concern even though they are holding the largest amount of net shorts since April. For now, the trend remains down in Chicago wheat with commercials providing enough support to keep prices roughly sideways in the low $4s. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.84 Monday, priced 37 cents below the March contract and up from its lowest price in seven months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.66, holding firm in a sideways range.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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