DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1/2 cent in the December contract and unchanged in the July. Soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents in the November contract and down 5 1/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 6 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 1/2 cent in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.14 at 93.50. December gold is up $10.50 at $1,285.40 while December silver is up 17 cents and December copper is up $0.0005. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 14 at 22,760. November crude oil is up 0.29 at $49.58. November heating oil is down $0.0091 while November RBOB gasoline is down $0.0005 and November natural gas is down $0.031.

Corn:

December corn closed down a half-cent Monday on light volume as USDA's weekly reports were put off one day for Columbus Day. This is harvest time, but crop maturity has been slow this year and persistent rain the past seven days likely added more delay to this year's slower-than-normal harvest pace. Subfreezing temperatures are expected in the northwestern Plains early Tuesday, but corn prices are showing no evidence of concern among traders. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightly bearish in corn with 47,103 net shorts as of Oct. 3. Commercials increased net longs to 29,074, finding attractive value at these low prices. Technically, the trend in December corn remains down, but so far, prices are holding above the Aug. 31 low of $3.44 1/4 at a time of year when seasonal lows are typically made. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.05 Friday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and has held roughly even for over a month. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.14 with most federal government offices closed on Columbus Day. December gold is up $10.50.

Soybeans:

November soybeans dropped 5 1/2 cents on light volume Monday with little news happening to influence prices. The Midwest was mostly dry Monday with showers in the western Plains, headed toward the central Midwest the next five days. Last week's rain may have delayed harvest progress a bit, but another record soybean crop in 2017 is still expected. USDA's next WASDE report is due out Thursday and Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA to peg a 4.44 billion bushel harvest, a slight increase from September's estimate. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still lightly bullish in soybeans with 38,134 contracts net long as of Oct. 3. Commercials covered their remaining net longs and turned slightly net short with November prices in the mid-$9 range. Technically, November soybeans remain in an uptrend with support from active export business. The anticipation of this year's record harvest has kept a lid on prices around $9.90 the past two months while dry conditions in Brazil remain a bullish concern for the new season. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.94 Friday, priced 79 cents below the November contract and holding a sideways range for over a month.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents Monday on slightly higher volume as bears took advantage of an absence of buying interest. Also, this week's forecast looks favorable for those willing to plant winter wheat again, but total plantings may stay near last year's depressed level. With USDA estimating 933 million bushels of U.S. ending wheat stocks and Dow Jones' survey anticipating USDA to increase that number to 946 mb in Thursday's WASDE report, potential buyers have had no reason to be concerned about obtaining supplies. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightly bearish in Chicago wheat with 19,142 net shorts. Commercials reduced net longs from 29,706 to 27,314, but continue to find these lower wheat prices attractive. If there is good news for Chicago wheat prices as we head toward winter, it is that commercials continue to support prices in the low $4s and should help wheat maintain a sideways range for the next few months. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.04 Friday, priced 40 cents below the December contract and down from its highest price in six weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.60, also down from its highest price in six weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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