DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 1/4 cents in the December contract and down 3 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents in the November contract and down 1 3/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 1/2 cent in the December Chicago contract, down 1/4 cent in the December Kansas City, and down 5 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.23 at 91.59. December gold is up $0.90 at $1,311.70 while December silver is up 14 cents and December copper is up $0.0015. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 55 at 22,386. November crude oil is down $0.36 at $49.99. November heating oil is down $0.0107 while November RBOB gasoline is down $0.0096 and November natural gas is down $0.012.

Corn:

December corn closed down 3 1/4 cents Tuesday, pressured by an unusual pattern of selling Tuesday morning. Trading showed significant pulses of increased selling volume roughly every 10 to 15 minutes from the 8:30 a.m. CDT open until shortly after 10:30 a.m. CDT. Futures spreads suggested commercial selling, but I suspect noncommercials were exiting more long positions. The 2017 corn crop continues to be unusually slow to develop as USDA said late Monday that 34% of corn was considered mature, down from the five-year average of 47% mature for this time of year. Fortunately for producers, the forecast remains warm, allowing crops to keep maturing in the field. Seven percent of corn was harvested with North Carolina and Texas past their halfway marks. Early Tuesday, Statistics Canada released a model-based estimate of corn production at 14.3 million metric tons (563 million bushels), up 8.5% from a year ago and slightly higher than USDA's estimate of 13.9 mmt. Technically, the trend in December corn remains down, but Friday's Commitments of Traders report showed commercials turned net long last Tuesday for the first time since June, suggesting support should be near. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.06 Monday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and still up from its lowest price in nine months. Outside markets are mostly quiet. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.23 as the Federal Reserve began the first day of its two-day meeting. The Fed is not likely to raise rates Wednesday, but comments will be watched for clues moving forward.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents Tuesday, weathering an initial burst of selling at the 8:30 a.m. CDT open as the rest of the day saw light trading volume and not much follow-through. Late Monday, USDA said 41% of soybeans were dropping leaves and 4% were harvested, close to their usual paces. Illinois and Indiana had rain overnight and although it is late in the season, some fields may still be able to benefit. While crops here in the U.S. are getting closer to harvest, Brazil is in its new planting season, but early conditions have been dry and so far, the one-week forecast is not offering any relief. Brazil's FOB soybean prices are up 28 cents in September and 11 cents above FOB prices at the U.S. Gulf -- a favorable spread for more U.S. export business. Technically, the trend in November soybeans remains up and 32,292 commercial net longs in Friday's report is a good sign of active support for prices. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.98 Monday, priced 69 cents below the November contract and down from its highest close in six weeks.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat ended down a half-cent Tuesday after an early attempt at commercial buying turned into a second day of commercial selling. Monday's Crop Progress report from USDA quit following the spring wheat harvest, but did say that 13% of winter wheat was planted with eight states at double-digit levels. Early Tuesday, a model-based estimate from Statistics Canada predicted 27.1 mmt of all wheat production in 2017, down 14.5% from 2016, but more than the usual 25.5 mmt Statistics Canada released on Aug. 31. As DTN Canadian Grain Analyst Cliff Jamieson explained, the model-based estimate is based on several sources, including satellite data and may not be as reliable as the Aug. 31 estimate. The five-day forecast expects light to moderate showers in the northwestern U.S. while the southwestern U.S. Plains stay mostly dry until rain chances appear this weekend and early next week -- a mostly favorable scenario for winter wheat planting. Technically, the trend remains down in winter wheat, but prices have gotten cheap enough to find support for a sideways range. Friday's CFTC data showed commercials net long 33,995 contracts as of Sep. 12. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.99 Monday, priced 45 cents below the December contract and down from its highest price in a month. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.61, down from its highest price in a month.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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