DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1 1/2 cents in the September contract and up 1 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 6 1/4 cents in the August contract and up 7 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 2 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 5 1/2 cents in the September Kansas City and up 6 1/2 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.23 at 93.74. August gold is up $9.80 at $1,259.20 while September silver is up 11 cents and September copper is down $0.0020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 34 at 21,745. September crude oil is up $0.44 at $49.19. September heating oil is up $0.0127 while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0280 and September natural gas is up $0.059.

Corn:

December corn closed up 1 3/4 cents Thursday after Wednesday's rain amounts did not reach forecast expectations, especially in Iowa where heavy totals were anticipated. Moderate-to-heavy overnight rains did fall in Missouri and Illinois, leading to flooding around Kansas City before moving on eastward. The forecast for the Corn Belt is mostly dry the next 10 days with milder summer temperatures -- still an ongoing source of crop stress in 2017. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 3.6 million bushels and 35.2 mb respectively, a new marketing year low for sales while total corn shipments are up 28% in 2016-17 from a year ago. One bearish difference from a year ago is that South American corn is more plentiful this year and is currently out-competing U.S. corn sales, which is more normal for this time of year. With lots of unanswered questions about this year's corn crop, December corn continues to trade in a sideways range, holding above support at $3.75. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.29 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the September contract and near its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.23 ahead of Friday morning's GDP report. Oddly enough, nearly all other commodities were also higher Thursday, including August gold, trading up $10.60.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 7 1/4 cents Thursday, also getting a boost from lighter-than-expected rain amounts on Wednesday. Thursday's rains are working eastward, across the southeastern Midwest with at least nine days of drier weather expected to follow. Temperatures will be milder next week, which will ease stress to crops, but Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor shows more rain is needed throughout the central and Western Corn Belt. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 11.1 mb and 21.1 mb respectively, bullish enough to keep total soybean shipments up 19% in 2016-17 from a year ago. USDA later added 7.3 mb (198,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17 and another 2.4 mb (66,000 mt) for 2017-18. As FOB soybean prices are currently favoring the U.S., USDA's ending soybean stocks estimates are ripe for a drop in 2016-17. With crops at risk and demand doing well, the trend in November soybeans remains up. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.27 Wednesday, priced 62 cents below the August contract and down from its highest prices in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat ended up 2 cents, looking at another U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows expanded and worsening drought conditions in the northwestern Plains. Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council's Hard Red Spring Wheat Tour travelled across northern North Dakota and witnessed more drought damage, as expected. Spring wheat yields averaged just shy of 36 bushels an acre on day two, down from 46.9 bushels a year ago. As many have commented on Twitter, the tour's yield estimates are probably too high, but the market doesn't seem swayed with traders already well aware of the drought by now. The more important statistic this year may be the tally of abandoned acres. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 18.3 mb and 17.5 mb respectively, a neutral combination that has total wheat shipments up 26% early in 2017-18 from a year ago. Winter wheat contracts have already given back their post-breakout gains and look ready to settle in for more sideways trading. Minneapolis wheat continues to have the most bullish fundamental argument and is probing for support after three weeks of correcting lower. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.47 Wednesday, priced 31 cents below the September contract and down sharply from its highest price in two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.10, also down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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