DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed down 11 1/4 cents in the September contract and down 11 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans closed down 4 1/4 cents in the August and down 4 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents in the September Chicago, down 7 3/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and down 12 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.43 at 93.69. August gold is up $10.00 at $1,255.50 while September silver is up $0.13 and September copper is up 0.0080. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 44 at 21,567. September crude oil is down $1.22 at $45.70. September heating oil is down $0.0277, September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0368, and September natural gas is down $0.073.

For the week:

September corn closed up 3 1/2 cents and December closed up 4 cents. August soybeans were up 20 cents while the November was up 20 3/4 cents. September Chicago wheat was down 11 1/2 cents, September Kansas City wheat was down 17 1/2 cents, and September Minneapolis wheat was up 7 3/4 cents.

Corn:

December corn dropped 11 1/4 cents Friday, but held a 4-cent gain on what may have been the hottest week of 2017. Friday's rains reached from eastern South Dakota to Ohio with northern Iowa and southern Minnesota receiving benefit. The rest of the Corn Belt however, was mostly dry with triple-digit temperatures in the western Plains radiating high temperatures as far east as Illinois. It seems an easy call that USDA's row crop ratings will be lower on Monday afternoon, but so far, December corn prices are struggling to trade above $4.00 (see Friday's Newsom on the Market by Senior Analyst Darin Newsom, "When Corn's Market Scale Tips"). As Newsom points out, 2.37 billion bushels of estimated old-crop corn stocks is one limiting factor on prices and I also suspect that corn's seasonal tendency to trade lower towards harvest is another. So far, December corn continues to maintain a sideways range in 2017 with support at $3.75. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.47 Thursday, priced 44 cents below the September contract and back near its highest prices in a year. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.43 at its lowest spot price in over a year, pressured by Republican difficulties passing tax reform and by a gradually improving outlook for Europe.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 4 3/4 cents Friday, but were up 20 3/4 cents on the week, thanks to the persistence of hot and mostly dry conditions for much of the soybean crop. The seven-day forecast from the National Weather Service expects a broad coverage of rain over much of the central and eastern Midwest, but as we know by now, actual rain amounts can differ and have often been less and more specific than this summer's forecasts. This week's hotter temperatures were no mirage however, and are expected to ease next week with highs in the low-90s in Iowa and in the upper-80s in Illinois. Crops in the western Midwest will continue to be stressed by hotter and drier conditions. Technically, November soybeans remain in an uptrend, but like corn, soybeans also have a strong seasonal tendency to trade lower toward harvest so it will be interesting to see if this year's weather concerns can provide enough fuel to keep the uptrend going. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.49 Thursday, priced 64 cents below the August contract and near its highest prices in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat ended down 6 1/2 cents Friday and were also down 11 1/2 cents on the week as prices continue to probe for support. Drought conditions in the northwestern Plains are getting worse and there is no significant rain expected in either Friday's seven-day forecast or in the six to ten day forecast. Traders have heard about drought for so long that wheat prices lost their ability to keep trading higher on the same old news. On Thursday, USDA's attache reduced its estimate of Australia's 2017-18 wheat crop from 23.5 mmt to 22.0 mmt, which is more in line with what many others have said. Otherwise, world wheat production outside of North America is doing well enough to keep gains in U.S. winter wheat prices limited. With U.S. wheat production headed lower in 2017, the trend in winter wheat prices remains up while prices look for support after a two and a half weeks of correcting lower. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.74 Thursday, priced 32 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.37, down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.