DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn and soybeans were off to a higher start again on Thursday with plenty of talk that the Midwest is probably experiencing its hottest days of 2017. Thursday morning rains were seen in northern Illinois and northern Indiana.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was up a nickel early Thursday, staying within this summer's volatile sideways trading range as traders continue to compare forecasts to actual rainfall amounts in an effort to assess this year's crop conditions. The heaviest rain chance in the seven-day forecast is a narrow band from northeastern Iowa to Ohio the next three days. Ohio especially, is one state that does not need more rain, but can't seem to shut it off. Select areas have had helpful rains the past seven days, but many more areas are still dry and being stressed by this week's hotter temperatures. It seems likely that Monday's next round of corn crop ratings will be lower and so far, December corn is keeping a sideways range, once again challenging the $4.00 mark. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 18.4 and 41.0 million bushels respectively, a bullish combination that has total shipments up 30% in 2016-17 from a year ago. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.38 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the September contract and in the middle of its wide, sideways trading range. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.01, just as European Central Bank President Draghi was holding a press conference.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were up 8 1/4 cents early with the same complications trying to assess the soybean crop as described above for corn. Hot temperatures prevail in the western Midwest this week, reaching as far east as Illinois. It is also getting more common to hear frustrated producers say that National Weather Service forecast amounts are consistently falling short of actual rain amounts. It seems safe to say that row crops are enduring more stress in 2017 than we have seen the past four years and USDA's next crop ratings are likely to show that again on Monday afternoon. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 15.1 and 13.2 million bushels respectively, a neutral-to-bearish combination that still keeps total shipments up 20% in 2016-17 from a year ago with roughly six weeks remaining. With soybean crops under stress, November soybeans continue to defy their bearish seasonal tendency and are trending higher. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.35 Wednesday, priced 64 cents below the August contract and down from its highest price in four months.

Wheat:

September K.C. wheat was down a penny early, threatening to close below $5.00 for the first time in July. Even though winter wheat prices have not yet made a new five-week low, they continue to show an inability to trade higher while drought conditions are getting no better in the northwestern Plains. Many may find that kind of contradictory behavior confusing, but it is typical bearish behavior and may also be related to observations that other wheat regions outside of North America are doing generally well in 2017. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 24.6 and 20.2 million bushels, bullish enough to have total shipments up 33% early in 2017-18. Technically, the trends in all three wheats are up, but the most bullish argument continues to be found in Minneapolis wheat. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.72 Wednesday, priced 31 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in two years.

ToddHultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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