DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

December corn was down 7 cents, November soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents, and September Chicago wheat was down 23 cents. After reaching significant highs Wednesday, wheat prices turned lower early Thursday in spite of another drop in USDA's spring wheat crop rating. Corn and soybeans are also lower with timely rains in the seven-day forecast.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was down 7 cents early after USDA raised corn's good-to-excellent crop rating from 67% to 68%, resulting in a 2 point gain in DTN's Corn Condition Index to 163. That is still the lowest index value in four years, but revealed some disappointment that crop ratings weren't lower. USDA also said 10% of corn is silking, just as the seven-day forecast is now showing moderate showers expected over the central and eastern Corn Belt with summer temperatures staying moderate. The western Corn Belt however, remains dry with high temperatures in the 90s and higher, stressing crops. While Thursday's forecast for rain as corn nears pollination is favorable for crop development, the overall picture remains less than ideal with crops still suffering drought in the northwestern Plains and the effects of a wet spring in Indiana and Ohio. For now, December corn remains in a sideways range, under the 2017 high of $4.09. USDA's weekly report of export sales will be released Friday morning, due to this week's holiday. 1,370 July corn contracts were delivered early Thursday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.47 Wednesday, priced 45 cents below the September contract and near its highest price in a year. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.32 after Wednesday's minutes from the Federal Reserve noted a lower rate of inflation than has been expected.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents early after USDA said 98% of the crop had emerged and 18% was blooming, on its usual pace. USDA's assessment that 64% of soybeans were rated good-to-excellent, down 2 percentage points from last week with the highest poor-to-very poor ratings seen in the Dakotas, Indiana, and Ohio. Thursday's seven-day forecast still looks hot and dry in the western Midwest, but expects beneficial showers over the eastern Midwest and as far west as Iowa and Missouri. Wednesday's close was a new three-month high for soybeans, helped by traders unraveling their excessive short positions. With weather still showing pros and cons in 2017, it remains to be seen if November prices will be able to sustain their new uptrend. Among July contracts, 962 soybeans and 261 soybean meal were delivered early Thursday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.16 Wednesday, priced 66 cents below the August contract and at a new three-month high.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat was down 23 cents early Thursday, falling back from Wednesday's new one-year high as this year's winter wheat harvest continues. USDA said late Wednesday that harvest was 53% complete, on its usual pace. As for spring wheat, USDA said 59% was headed and 37% was rated either good or excellent. DTN's Spring Wheat Condition Index saw a 16-point drop to 65 and continues to score the lowest ratings since 1988. This time around however, September Minneapolis wheat is down 27 3/4 cents, falling back from Wednesday's highest spot close in four years. So far, the seven-day forecast remains hot and dry for the northwestern Plains, but it is fair to wonder if wheat prices have seen their peaks as other wheat regions around the world are doing generally well. Among July contracts, 201 Chicago wheat and 408 K.C. wheat were delivered early Thursday. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.28 Wednesday, priced 32 cents below the September contract and at its highest price in nearly two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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