DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 cents in the July contract and up 3 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents in the July contract and up 3 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 23 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 19 1/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and up 31 1/2 cents in the September Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.42 at 95.32. August gold is down $3.20 at $1,245.90 while September silver is down 12 cents and September copper is up $0.0215. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 172 at 21,282. August crude oil is up $.18 at $44.92. August heating oil is up $0.0118 while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0034 and August natural gas is down $0.050.

Corn:

December corn closed up 3 3/4 cents Thursday, receiving bullish influence from wheat and from Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor after it showed worsening drought in the northwestern Plains and abnormally dry areas expanding into Nebraska and Oklahoma. Thursday's weather saw heavy showers move across northern Kansas and northern Missouri with more expected the next few days around the southern Midwest and southeastern U.S. The extended forecast bears watching with above-normal temperatures expected over most the Midwest while the northwestern Midwest and Plains remain mostly dry. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 12.4 million and 40.2 million bushels, respectively, This was a lower combination than last week, but still bullish enough to have total shipments up 36% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Surprises are possible in Friday's USDA reports, but corn's acreage number will likely be neutral while June 1 corn stocks have a chance to be lower than analysts' estimate of 5.16 billion bushels. For now, December corn has held support at the low end of a sideways range that goes back to October. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.20 Wednesday, priced 37 cents below the July contract and near its lowest price in 12 weeks. In outside markets, September T-bonds were trading lower a third consecutive day as markets show concern about possible tightening among international central banks.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 3 cents Thursday, joining the bullish party in grains, but not getting too carried away ahead of Friday's Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. June 1 soybean stocks are expected at 981 million bushels on Friday, but the bigger bearish concern and possible source of surprise will likely be USDA's estimate of soybean plantings, expected just shy of 90 million acres. Statistics Canada released its planting estimates early Thursday and pegged soybeans at 7.3 million acres, up 33% from a year ago. On the demand side, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 11.5 million and 12.6 million bushels, respectively, bullish enough to put total soybean shipments up 20% in 2016-17 from a year ago. Thanks to those exports, June 1 soybean stocks will probably reveal a record high demand pace in 2016-17, but it remains to be seen if demand has been strong enough to bring down USDA's ending stocks estimate. With potentially volatile reports due out Friday, November soybeans remain in a downtrend. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.52 Wednesday, priced 62 cents below the July contract and near its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

September K.C. wheat closed up 19 1/4 cents at another new three-month high, riding the coattails of spring wheat higher. Before Thursday, winter wheat prices had been reluctant to extend their three-month highs made last week, but seeing September Minneapolis wheat climb over $1.60 higher in June proved irresistible and sellers finally backed away. It is also helping winter wheat prices that the mosaic virus continues to be talked about as winter harvest reports roll in. The main fuel for spring wheat's bull market has been drought conditions in the northwestern Plains, which looked worse in Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor and are accompanied by a dry forecast the next ten days with temperatures turning hotter. In other news, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 18.1 million and 27.6 million bushels, respectively, a bullish combination that has total wheat shipments off to a good start, up 38% in the new season from a year ago. Thursday morning, Statistics Canada said spring wheat acres are up 2.5% in 2017 from a year ago, but durum acres are down 16%. Thursday's obvious summary is that all three wheats remain in uptrends with Minneapolis wheat staying the clear leader. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.40 Wednesday, priced 18 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in a year. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.04, near its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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