DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/4 cent in the July contract and up 1/2 cent in the December. Soybeans were up 4 1/2 cents in the July contract and up 3 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 4 1/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and up 17 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.95 at 96.17. August gold is up $3.90 at $1,250.30 while July silver is up 4 cents and July copper is up $0.0155. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 63 at 21,347. August crude oil is up $.77 at $44.15. August heating oil is up $0.0285 while August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0200 and August natural gas is up $0.022.

Corn:

December corn closed up a half-cent Tuesday, one of the drier days this week before heavy rain amounts are expected to work across the central Midwest the next seven days. Widespread rain coverage will be generally favorable for row crops, but this year we also have to remember that the rain is not welcome everywhere, especially around the eastern Midwest. Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report kept USDA's good-to-excellent rating unchanged at 67% for corn, but also showed an expansion of poor-to-very poor ratings in Nebraska and Minnesota -- states on the drier end of recent forecasts. DTN's Corn Condition Index of 161 matched the lowest value in four years and continues to suggest that corn will not see record yields in 2017. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA to estimate corn plantings at 89.82 million acres and June 1 corn stocks at 5.16 billion bushels. Those numbers will serve as neutral markers for Friday's report, but keep in mind that trying to outguess USDA's numbers on June 30 is traditionally difficult and prices are vulnerable to surprise. For now, the trend in December corn is down in spite of unsettling areas of crop concern. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.21 Monday, priced 38 cents below the July contract and near its lowest price in twelve weeks. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.95 after European Central Bank President Draghi acknowledged a strengthening economy in the euro area, Bloomberg news reported early Tuesday.

Soybeans:

November soybeans traded even higher at times, but closed up 3 3/4 cents after USDA said 9% of soybeans were blooming and 66% were rated good-to-excellent. DTN's Soybean Condition Index dropped 3 points to 158 with double-digit, poor-to-very poor ratings in the Dakotas and Indiana with Illinois close behind at 9%. This week's rain will likely be seen as bearish, but heavy amounts may also add to problems from Iowa to Ohio, depending on actual totals. Tuesday's higher close was helped by commercial buying in new-crop soybeans and a $0.55 gain in December soybean oil. Friday's reports from USDA continue to keep soybean traders cautious with Dow Jones' survey expecting USDA to estimate nearly 90 million soybean acres, possibly the first time since 1983 that soybean plantings would exceed corn acres. November soybeans remain in a downtrend with commercials helping to provide support near their lowest prices in over 10 months. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.43 Monday, priced 64 cents below the July contract and near its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

September Kansas City wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents, helped by Tuesday's lower U.S. dollar and ongoing drought problems in the northwestern Plains. Not surprisingly, USDA's good-to-excellent rating for spring wheat slipped from 41% to 40%, once again putting DTN's Spring Wheat Condition Index at its lowest value since 1988. September Minneapolis wheat closed up 17 1/4 cents, nearly the highest spot close in two years with Tuesday's temperatures expected to reach the 90s in the Dakotas and the extended forecast looking hot and mostly dry in the northwestern Plains after chances for light rains this week. USDA also said 41% of winter wheat was harvested with Illinois at 78% and Kansas at 48% complete. Both Chicago and K.C. wheat remain in uptrends, but only Minneapolis wheat keeps making new highs with the spot price now near its highest level in two years. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.30 Monday, priced 20 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in a year. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.93, down from its highest price in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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