DTN Ag Weather Brief

TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...123 AT NEEDLES CA

LOW WED...32 AT YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK AT OLD FAITHFUL WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...MOBILE AL 4.47 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement today. The mean trough position appears to range from north-central to northeast US and from central to east Canada during the outlook period. The mean ridge position will favor the southwest to the south-central US but appears somewhat weaker than it has been. A strong jet stream between the two features is mainly over the north or the central US. This pattern trends towards below normal temperatures north of the jet stream which includes the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and the northern Midwest regions. Temperatures should be more variable through central areas and trend towards near or above normal through the south.

Rainfall potential is highest south and east of the mean trough position. This puts the Midwest area in the region of near to above normal rainfall. It may also trend towards near to above normal rain in the northeast to east-central plains but this is somewhat more uncertain. The west and south plains areas look to be drier. The Delta and the southeast could go either way.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: Radar and surface observations indicate that Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas early this morning. Maximum sustained winds were likely near 40 mph at the time of landfall.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 93.6 West. Cindy is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center will move into southeastern Arkansas early Friday, and into Tennessee later on Friday.

DELTA: Tropical storm Cindy will have weakened to a depression as it moves through the key growing areas of the Delta tonight or Friday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely with the passage of this system. This may mean flooding for some locations. Winds of a moderate nature, except somewhat higher near any thunderstorms that develop.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered rains favoring north and southeast areas during the next 24-48 hours. Drier after that. No significant hot weather is in sight. A mostly favorable weather pattern for developing crops.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Dryness remains of concern in key crop areas of North Dakota, especially for reproductive wheat. Rainfall chances remain fairly limited during the next 5 days. Showers may increase somewhat after that but this is uncertain. No significant hot weather is expected which helps ease moisture requirements of crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Corn/Sorghum): Mostly favorable conditions for mature winter wheat and the harvest. Recent hot temperatures increased stress to corn and sorghum but it looks to be much cooler during the coming days.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Dryland fields would benefit from increased rain chances and less extreme heat. The forecast does include a chance for beneficial rains to reach the area this weekend and early next week. Temperatures continue fairly hot today but it should turn cooler after today.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat): Wet weather and conditions may delay the final planting effort for crop areas of northern and central Alberta and northwest Saskatchewan. Scattered showers and cooler conditions favor developing crops elsewhere in the region. However, rainfall levels are still averaging well below normal during the past 30 and 60 day periods through southwest and south-central Saskatchewan. More rain is needed to bring these values closer to normal.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Showers and cooler temperatures developed during the weekend period and continued during Monday. This will improve conditions for planting and early development of crops. However, more rain is still needed through some western growing areas. The region looks to be drier and warmer during the next 7 to 10 days or so.

INDIAN MONSOON: The leading edge of the Monsoon has moved little during the past 7 days and it now running about 10 days behind normal development. This leaves key growing areas of west-central and northwest India outside of the Monsoon flow pattern. However, a trough dipping down from the north has lead to scattered thundershowers in east Pakistan and north India this week. This favors these crop areas while key soybean, groundnut and cotton areas in west-central India remain between the Monsoon activity to the south and scattered showers associated with the trough in the north.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier favoring northern and eastern areas yesterday or last night, especially over northern and eastern Iowa. Temperatures averaged above normal through west and south areas, below normal northeast. Highs ranging from 73 in northeast Iowa to 97 in eastern Nebraska.

East: Light showers with isolated heavier in northwest and central Illinois during the past 24 hours. Scattered thundershowers have moved into Wisconsin overnight. Temperatures averaged below normal north, above normal south. Highs 74-80 north, 89-93 south.

Forecast...

West: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers today or tonight will tend to favor southeast Minnesota, central and east Iowa and northeast Missouri. Mainly dry during Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers in the northern areas Saturday. Temperatures average below normal north and above normal south today, mostly below normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Chance for showers developing Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures average below normal Sunday and Monday, near normal west and below normal east Tuesday.

East: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms develop today or tonight through northern and northwest areas, heavier in Wisconsin and central to north Michigan. Moderate to locally heavy showers may also reach the Ohio river valley from the south today or tonight. Scattered light showers otherwise. Rain or showers and thundershowers through southeast to east-central areas during Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average mostly above normal today, cooler tomorrow and especially during Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northeast and far east areas Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal during this period, possibly well below normal for a time.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average below normal early in this period, somewhat more variable later in the period. Rainfall near to above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Light to locally moderate showers through northern areas of South Dakota overnight. Dry or with only a few very light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below to well below normal Friday and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to below normal west and below normal east Sunday, warmer and then much warmer Monday and Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Isolated thundershower activity yesterday or last night, favoring north and southwest locations. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. Highs yesterday ranged from 93 to 107F, hottest in southwest Nebraska, western Kansas, southeast Colorado and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.

Forecast: Light showers with locally heavier will favoring north and west areas this afternoon and tonight, southern areas during Friday and the Texas Panhandle Saturday. Temperatures average above to much above normal again today, but probably not quite as hot as yesterday. Temperatures turn cooler tomorrow and much cooler Saturday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring the Texas Panhandle Sunday and Monday but possible in western Oklahoma, southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. A few thundershowers may move into central areas during Tuesday.

Temperatures average below normal Sunday and Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal west and south areas, somewhat more variable northeast locations. Rainfall should average near to below normal west and south, near to above normal east-central and northeast areas.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Wheat)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Light to moderate rain or showers occurred yesterday or overnight in northern and eastern areas. A few showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged below normal west, near to slightly above normal east.

Forecast: Light rain or showers favoring southern and eastern areas today. Dry or with only a few passing showers favoring eastern areas tomorrow. Dry Saturday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring western and northern areas Monday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring western and northern areas during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal west and above normal east Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Rainfall near to above normal west, near to below normal central and east.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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