DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 2 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 1 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans closed up 9 cents in the July and up 7 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1/2 cent in the July Chicago, up 2 1/2 cents in the July Kansas City and up 5 cents in the July Minneapolis.

The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.48 at 96.66. August gold is up $10.00 at $1,280.10 while July silver is up $0.24 and July copper is down 0.0135. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 66 at 21,210. July crude oil is down $0.66 at $47.70. July heating oil is down $0.0175, July RBOB gasoline is down $0.0249, and July natural gas is down $0.010.

For the week:

July corn closed down 1 1/2 cents and December closed down 1 1/2 cents. July soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents while the November was down 4 1/4 cents. July Chicago wheat was down 8 3/4 cents, July Kansas City wheat was down 4 1/4 cent, and July Minneapolis wheat was up 15 cents.

Corn:

July corn closed up 2 1/4 cents Friday, capping off another week of stagnant prices while traders remain in the dark about the future size of this year's U.S. corn crop. According to USDA, 91% of the 90 million corn acres estimated have been planted, but this year's wet conditions in the eastern Midwest make it difficult to know how much replanting is needed, creating doubts about reaching USDA's estimate of 82.4 million harvest corn acres. Meanwhile, Brazil's second corn crop has been doing well, and one estimate from the private firm, AgroConsult, pegged Brazil's corn production near 100 million metric tons and another from Safras & Mercado raised the top guess to 106.4 mmt -- both higher than USDA's 96.0 mmt. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 16.2 million bushels and 52.5 mb respectively, bullish enough to keep total shipments up 45% in 2016-17 from a year ago. With increased competing corn supplies from Brazil just weeks away, July corn continues to trade sideways, below the April high of $3.79 1/2. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.33 Thursday, priced 37 cents below the July contract, and down from its highest price in 11 weeks. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.48 after the U.S. Labor Department said non-farm payrolls were up 138,000 in May, less than expected. The unemployment rate improved from 4.4% to 4.3% in May. With the U.S. dollar trending lower, traders do not seem overly concerned about talk of more rate hikes in 2017.

Soybeans:

July soybeans finished up 9 cents and cut its loss for the week to 5 1/4 cents, helped by commercial buying in both, soybeans and meal on Friday. Some profit-taking among shorts was likely ahead of the weekend, but the more encouraging news for producers is that commercials remain active buyers in the soy complex, even as July prices have dropped to their lowest level in over a year. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 22.4 mb and 12.7 mb respectively, putting total sales and shipments 97 mb above USDA's export estimate with three months remaining in the season. USDA later added 2.6 mb (70,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans sold to Spain for 2016-17. A previous sale of 4.8 mb (130,000 mt) to unknown for 2017-18 was also identified as going to Spain. This week's U.S. forecast is drier in the eastern Midwest, which will help soybean planting efforts, but it also stays mostly dry in the Dakotas where moisture is needed and temperatures are hitting the 90s on Friday. With the growing season still in front of us, July soybeans remain in a downtrend. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.46 Thursday, priced 66 cents below the July contract and at its lowest price in over a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed down a half-cent Friday and was down 8 3/4 cents on the week, holding steady overall, but also staying near its contract low. Wheat officially entered a new season this week, one in which USDA expects all wheat production to be down 21% in the U.S. So far, that seems more than reasonable with all the problems the winter crop has been through and the Dakotas now facing the threat of drought. USDA said last week's old-crop export sales showed a net cancellation of 100,000 bushels while shipments of wheat totaled 21.4 mb. 2016-17 wheat shipments now total 957 mb, which is 78 mb short of USDA's estimate with just six days left in the season. Winter wheat contracts continue to trade roughly sideways while July Minneapolis wheat is trending higher, bolstered by hot and dry conditions in the Dakotas and persistent commercial buying. July Minneapolis wheat was up a nickel Friday at its highest close in 11 months. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.96 Thursday, priced 33 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in twelve weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.53, down from its highest price in 11 months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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