DTN Early Word Grains

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

July corn was down 2 3/4 cents, July soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents, and July Chicago wheat was down 3 cents.

CME Globex Recap:

Tuesday was supposed to be a drier day across the Corn Belt, but morning showers are already falling in Missouri and Illinois under a crescent moon with more coming in the seven-day forecast. Grains are starting lower Tuesday after USDA showed no planting problems on paper.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 89.99 points at 20,894.83. The NASDAQ Composite was up 49.92 points at 6,133.62 and the S&P 500 was up 12.29 points at 2,394.02 Monday. DJIA futures were up 31 points early Tuesday morning. Asian markets were mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei down 65.00 points (-0.33%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 11.81 points (0.05%), and China's Shanghai Composite down 13.73 points (-0.45%). European markets were a little higher Tuesday with London's FTSE 100 up 8.24 points (0.1%), Germany's DAX up 34.98 points (0.3%), and France's CAC 40 up 32.53 points (0.6%). The U.S. dollar index was down 0.16 at 96.73 while the June euro was up 0.00220 at 1.12730. June 30-year T-Bonds were up 7/32nds at 154'00 while June gold was down $0.60 at $1,280.80. July crude oil was down 0.49 at $50.64 while July Brent crude was down $0.57 at $53.30. Soybeans at the Dalian Exchange were steady to higher overnight and Malaysian palm oil futures are down 1.7%.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	July corn continues to hold above its March low of $3.61 3/4 while planting remains a challenge, especially from Missouri into the eastern Corn Belt.	1)	So far, growing conditions remain favorable for Brazil's second corn crop which is on track for a record harvest.
2)	In spite of last week's drop in Brazil's real, July soybeans continue to trade above the April low of $9.41 1/4 with help from Friday's commercial buying.	2)	Brazil's record soybean harvest continues to compete for export business.
3)	Noncommercials remain heavily bearish in Chicago wheat, but it seems highly likely that U.S. wheat production will be down in 2017.	3)	Brazil's record soybean harvest continues to compete for export business. It is old news, but 2017-18 will start with the largest carryover of U.S. wheat in thirty years.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN July corn is down 2 3/4 cents early Tuesday, staying within the confines of its sideways range after USDA said 84% of corn was planted and 54% was emerged. On paper, all looks well, but there is no official assessment of how many corn acres need to be replanted or won't get to be replanted in time to qualify for crop insurance. DTN's seven-day forecast is not offering much help in that regard as more moderate to heavy rain amounts are expected over the eastern half of the U.S. and also include Missouri and Arkansas. While July corn is trading in the upper half of its sideways range, it has been reluctant to trade above its ten-week high at $3.79 1/2.

SOYBEANS July soybeans are down 5 1/2 cents early, pressured by a 1.7% drop in palm oil prices overnight which followed a new 8-week high on Monday and has July soybean oil down 0.30 early. Late Monday, USDA said 53% of soybeans were planted and 19% were emerged, in line with their five-year averages, but like corn, it is difficult to say how much will need to be replanted. At the same time, there is an ongoing concern that this wet spring will eventually lead to more soybean acres than the 89.5 million USDA estimated in March. Overall, the bearish concerns for soybean still outnumber bullish arguments, but July soybean prices remain in a sideways range with support at $9.41 1/4.

WHEAT July Chicago wheat is down 3 cents early after USDA reported modest improvement in winter wheat conditions. USDA said 72% of winter wheat was headed, a little ahead of its usual pace the past five years and 15% of winter wheat crops were rated poor-to-very-poor, down from 17% the previous week. USDA also said 90% of spring wheat was planted and 62% was emerged, back above the five-year averages. Light to moderate showers are expected in the southwestern Plains this week while more unwanted rain falls on winter wheat in the eastern Midwest. With USDA estimating less U.S. wheat production in 2017, July Chicago wheat continues to build a base of support in the low $4s.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.38	$0.03	-$0.37	Jul	$0.005
Soybeans:	$8.89	$0.04	-$0.68	Jul	$0.001
SRW Wheat:	$3.97	$0.00	-$0.38	Jul	$0.007
HRW Wheat:	$3.56	-$0.02	-$0.80	Jul	$0.003
HRS Wheat:	$5.19	$0.04	-$0.41	Jul	$0.000

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Toddcan be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\ToddHultman1

(KA)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.