DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Grains Creep Higher, Rains Continue

Todd Hultman , DTN Grains Analyst
(DTN photo by Greg Horstmeier)

Morning CME Globex Update:

July corn was up 2 1/2 cents, July soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents, and July Chicago wheat was up 3 cents. Corn, soybeans, and wheat were all starting higher early Friday, trying to shake off a week of bearish news while persistent rains continue to make corn planting difficult this spring. Outside markets showed investors cautiously returning to higher risk assets.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones: Higher
U.S. Dollar Index: Lower
Gold: Higher
Crude Oil: Higher

Corn:

July corn was up 2 1/2 cents early Friday, taking back part of Thursday's loss while the window for planting corn narrows. Kansas and Oklahoma were hit by severe storms overnight, dispersing scattered showers around the central Midwest on Friday. More rain is expected to cover the eastern Midwest and southeastern U.S. over the weekend. Through all the bombshells of this week's scandals, first in the U.S. and then in Brazil, July corn has held steady within its sideways range. Support for this range remains at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.29 Thursday, priced 37 cents below the July contract and still within its sideways range. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.51, Dow Jones futures are modestly higher, and June crude oil is up 71 cents a barrel.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents early Friday, making an early effort to rebound from Thursday's 31-cent loss with help from July palm oil posting its highest close in eight weeks overnight. June's Brazilian real is up 0.55% early, taking a bit of the edge off of Thursday's 6.5% drop, but is still at new lows for 2017 and putting pressure on U.S. soybean prices to compete for export business. The other factor pressuring soybean prices lower is this spring's difficulty planting corn. With planting deadlines for corn coming in late-May to early-June, some of those wet acres are likely go to soybeans and some may not be planted this year at all. In spite of all these bearish concerns, it remains interesting that July soybeans have not yet been able to trade below the low of its weekly reversal at $9.41 1/4 in early April. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.76 Thursday, priced 69 cents below the July contract and near its lowest price in four weeks.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was up 3 cents, once again finding early commercial support as prices approach their April lows. July K.C. wheat is up 5 cents, also receiving early commercial support after a night of severe storms hit Kansas and Oklahoma. With USDA rating 17% of the winter wheat crop as poor to very poor, up from last year's 8%, and all wheat acres at their lowest in over a century, U.S. ending wheat stocks are likely to come down in 2017-18 and that should help prices stay stable in 2017. It is still early in the year and whether or not wheat prices find a reason to trade higher remains to be seen and will need help from other wheat regions. One candidate is northern China where conditions are on the dry side early. Technically, July Chicago wheat remains in an uptrend, but has yet to extend the storm-related surge of nearly three weeks ago. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.87 Thursday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and in the middle of its sideways range.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)