DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 4 1/2 cents in the July contract and down 4 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 4 cents in the July contract and down 2 3/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 2 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 1 1/2 cents in the July Kansas City, and up 3 1/4 cents in the July Minneapolis contract. The June U.S. dollar index is down 0.06 at 99.50. June gold is up $4.60 at $1,223.50 while July silver is up 7 cents and July copper is up $0.0135. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 20 at 20,923. June crude oil is up $0.47 at $47.80. June heating oil is up $0.0135 while June RBOB gasoline is up $0.0240 and June natural gas is up $0.081.

Corn:

July corn closed down 4 1/2 cents Thursday after a bearish export sales report and was also pressured by a forecast for better planting weather ahead. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 10.9 million and 28.5 million bushels, respectively, a new marketing year low for old-crop sales and bearish showing for the week. New-crop corn sales showed a net cancellation of 2.2 million bushels. The lower sales are likely related to increased competition from South America and also came with news that Brazil's government raised its 2016-17 corn estimate to 92.8 mmt, less than USDA's estimate of 96.0 mmt. Thursday's weather map saw scattered showers around the Southern Plains with flooding problems in northwestern Kansas and southern Missouri. The next several days, however, look better for planting with drier and warmer weather expected. July corn remains in a sideways range with support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.34 Wednesday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and still in a sideways range. There were 486 contracts of May corn delivered early Thursday. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.07 while metals and energies are modestly higher.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed down 4 cents, pressured by light commercial selling in soybeans and soybean meal. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 14.0 million and 12.7 million bushels, respectively, enough to be bullish for the week. Even with Wednesday's higher export estimate from USDA, total soybean shipments in 2016-17 are 18% higher than a year ago, which is well above USDA's estimated pace. In spite of Brazil's record soybean crop, now estimated by the government (CONAB) at 113.0 mmt, U.S. FOB soybean prices remain close to Brazil's and are continuing to steal some business away. So far, July soybean prices remain in a downtrend, but have held steady the past five weeks, thanks to commercial buying. A close above $9.83, if it happened, would turn the trend bullish, contrary to fundamental expectations. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.00 Wednesday, priced 71 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in six weeks. Among May contracts, there were 56 deliveries of soybean meal and 16 deliveries in soybean oil early Thursday.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed up 2 cents Thursday with help from commercial buying and in spite of a bearish weekly export sales report. USDA said last week's export sales showed a net cancellation of 900,000 bushels along with 21.9 million bushels of shipments in 2016-17. New-crop wheat sales totaled 10.0 million bushels with the start of the new season just weeks away. Thursday's scattered showers around the Southern Plains added to flooding concerns in northwestern Kansas and southern Missouri, but the rest of the seven-day forecast is mostly drier for winter wheat areas with warmer temperatures helping crop development. The condition of winter wheat in western Kansas remains a concern and we may not know much until harvest. In the meantime, July Chicago wheat is struggling to maintain its new uptrend with help from commercial buying when prices dip lower. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.90 Wednesday, priced 41 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in seven weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.54, down from its highest price in ten months. Among May contracts, there were 13 deliveries of Chicago wheat and 5 deliveries of K.C. wheat early Thursday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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