DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn, soybeans and wheat are all off to a quiet start again early Wednesday, but it is not clear what traders are waiting for. Wednesday's 11 a.m. CDT WASDE report will offer estimates for 2017-18 that have already been anticipated with an entire growing season still ahead.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

July corn was up 1 1/4 cents early Wednesday in a narrow overnight range as traders hold off ahead of Wednesday's WASDE report from USDA. A Dow Jones pre-report survey estimates USDA will show a lower U.S. ending stocks at 2.11 billion bushels for 2017-18, but given Wednesday's numbers, are early estimates in a long process, corn prices are likely to show more reaction to weather events this week than Wednesday's report. Wednesday morning's weather may show rain in the central Plains and Texas Panhandle with more rain expected across the southern Midwest on Thursday. July corn remains in its sideways range with support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.27 Tuesday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and still in a sideways range. There were 579 contracts of May corn delivered early Wednesday. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.19 while metals and energies are mostly higher.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were down a quarter-cent early with traders showing caution ahead of USDA's 11 a.m. CDT report. The Dow Jones survey expects USDA to estimate U.S. ending soybean stocks at 572 million bushels in 2017-18, up from the current season's 445 mb as a result of record U.S. plantings. The expectation of increased soybean supplies in 2017 is nothing new and is not likely to have a strong impact on Wednesday's soybean prices. More surprising of late has been the ability of July soybean prices to hold steady the past five weeks with help from commercial buying as was seen on Tuesday. Technically, July soybeans remain in a downtrend that has been on pause, thanks to better-than-expected demand. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.03 Tuesday, priced 71 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in nearly five weeks. Among May contracts, there were 75 deliveries of soybean meal and 94 deliveries in soybean oil early Wednesday.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was up 1 3/4 cents early Wednesday with rain in the Texas Panhandle and more on the way to the already wet southern Midwest on Thursday. Warmer temperatures are giving winter wheat crops a chance to recover from the late-April snowstorm where possible, but of course, warm weather will not cure broken stems or crops ruined by the mosaic virus. Wednesday's WASDE report is expected to estimate all wheat production at 1.92 bb, but keep in mind that USDA's survey work started before the snow hit. A modest reduction in USDA's estimate of world ending stocks for 2017-18 is expected in Wednesday's numbers, but not much price impact is expected from estimates this early in the game. July Chicago wheat continues to probe for support while traders wait for better evidence of crop conditions out of Kansas. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.88 Tuesday, priced 41 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in seven weeks. Among May contracts, there were 17 deliveries of Chicago wheat and 30 deliveries of Kansas City wheat early Wednesday.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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