DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 4 3/4 cents in the July contract and down 4 1/4 cents in the December contract. Soybeans were down 8 1/4 cents in the July contract and down 5 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 8 3/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, down 5 3/4 cents in the July Kansas City, and down 9 1/2 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.44 at 98.97. June gold is up $0.90, at $1,227.80, while July silver is up 1 cent and July copper is down $0.0385. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11 points at 20,996. June crude oil is up $0.10, at $46.32. June heating oil is up $0.0179, while June RBOB gasoline is up $0.0094 and June natural gas is down $0.097.

CORN:

July corn closed down 4 3/4 cents Monday after many took advantage of pleasant weekend weather in the Western Corn Belt for planting row crops. Weekend efforts are not likely to show up in Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report, but we are apt to soon see a split of more progress in the West and less in the East.

In South America, Brazil's second corn crop continues to do well and 29% of Argentina's corn has been harvested, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange. Harvest is apt to slow this week with heavy rain expected in northeastern Argentina. On Monday morning, USDA said 28.4 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, a smaller showing, but still enough to have total inspections up 55% in 2016-17 from a year ago with less than four months remaining. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials modestly bearish in corn with 76,717 net shorts as of May 2, down 6,551 from the previous week. Commercials held 73,302 net longs, close to the most in a year and a good sign of support for corn's economic value.

July corn continues to trade within a sideways range with support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Friday, priced 40 cents below the July contract and still within its sideways range. There were 553 contracts of May corn delivered early Monday.

In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.44, an unexpected response after France's pro-European Union candidate, Emmanuel Macron won Sunday's election as polls predicted.

SOYBEANS:

July soybeans closed down 8 1/4 cents Monday, falling back from last week's attempt at a new five-week high after warmer weather over the weekend allowed more active planting in the western Midwest and northwestern Plains.

Rain will add to problems again from Missouri to Indiana on Wednesday and fields in the eastern Midwest will be slow to recover with weather staying on the cool side the next 10 days.

In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange estimated the soybean harvest at 49% complete with delays expected this week due to rain in northeastern Argentina.

Earlier Monday, Dow Jones said China's soybean imports were up 13% in April from a year ago and USDA said 12.8 million bushels of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week. While export activity continues to show a slower pace, total U.S. inspections are up 16% in 2016-17 from a year ago -- good enough to deserve a raise in USDA's export estimate on Wednesday.

Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders still slightly bearish in soybeans with 39,783 net shorts as of May 2. Commercials were net long 93,386 contracts, near the most in over a year and still making a good case for support near the April low of $9.41 1/4. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.01 Friday, priced 72 cents below the July contract and near its highest price in six weeks. Among May contracts, there were 22 deliveries of soybean meal and 193 deliveries in soybean oil early Monday.

WHEAT

July Chicago wheat closed down 8 3/4 cents Monday after a weekend of warmer weather helped winter wheat crops in Colorado and Kansas try to recover from last week's snow, where possible.

Warmer weather in the northwestern Plains and Canadian Prairies will help fieldwork pick up. After last week's snow and heavy rain, U.S. winter wheat production will be more difficult to estimate than usual this year and last week's wheat crop tour estimate for Kansas of 282 million bushels for Kansas should be supportive to prices, but also comes with a wide range of uncertainty.

Early Monday, USDA said 22.6 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, a neutral amount that has total inspections on pace with USDA's export estimate. Not surprisingly, Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial net shorts in Chicago wheat dropped from a record high 130,036 last week to 84,985, as of May 2, as prices jumped to their highest level in seven weeks. As usual, commercials took advantage of the rally and lightened their record high 122,534 net longs to 78,192 as of May 2.

July Chicago wheat is probing for support after last week's excitement with lots of unanswered questions about the new winter wheat crop. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.99 Friday, priced 43 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in seven weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.64, down from its highest price in 10 months. Among May contracts, there was 1 delivery of Chicago wheat and 7 deliveries of K.C. wheat early Monday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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