DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 3 cents in the May contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the December. Soybeans were unchanged in the May contract and up 1/2 cent in the November. Wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents in the July Chicago contract, up 8 1/2 cents in the July Kansas City and up 2 1/2 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.03 at 98.95. June gold is up $2.20 at $1,266.40 while July silver is down 8 cents and July copper is down $0.0060. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 11 at 20,986. June crude oil is down $0.69 at $48.93. June heating oil is down $0.0326 while June RBOB gasoline is down $0.0403 and June natural gas is down $0.033.

Corn:

July corn ended up 2 1/2 cents in a quiet day of trading with little fresh news to shake things up. Wednesday evening's rumor that the White House may scrap NAFTA completely understandably angered ag groups. The rumor had little effect on grain prices and looks to have been a setup for renegotiating the agreement. Except for Wisconsin, most of the Corn Belt got a break from rain on Thursday, but plenty is expected to return the next five days, while temperatures stay too cold for good planting in the northwestern Plains. Brazil's second corn crop continues to do well and remains on track for record production in 2016-17. Until Brazil's new crop becomes available this summer, U.S. corn demand continues to do well and USDA said early Thursday that last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 38.9 million bushels and 54.1 mb respectively. That bullish combination has total shipments now up 54% in 2016-17 from a year ago, well above USDA's estimated export pace. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Thursday, priced 42 cents below the July contract and within a sideways range. In outside markets, cattle and feeder futures ended up their daily limits.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were 3/4 cent higher, getting a slight lift out of Thursday's bullish export numbers from USDA. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 29.7 mb and 28.7 mb respectively, a surprisingly bullish performance that has total shipments up 18% from a year ago and total sales already 49 mb above USDA's 2016-17 estimate with four months still left in the season. The remarkable thing about Thursday's numbers is that they are coming at a time when Brazil's record harvest is freshly available and we are at the high point of Brazil's export season. In the face of bearish supply estimates, which depend on the U.S. having a good growing season, U.S. soybean demand remains mysteriously stronger than expected and is also supported by the recent appearance of commercial buying. Technically, July soybeans remain in a downtrend with possible support at the April low of $9.41 1/4. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.77 Thursday, priced 79 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest prices in a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents and Kansas City wheat was up 8 1/2 cents, both decent gains for a quiet Thursday with traders keeping an eye on the weather map. Rain is expected across the Southern Plains the next three days, which will be beneficial in the western half but will likely create flooding problems from eastern Oklahoma into southern Illinois and take down some winter wheat with it. July Minneapolis wheat was 2 1/2 cents higher while the northwestern Plains contend with cold temperatures. Earlier Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 2.3 mb and 22.5 mb, a new marketing-year low for sales that is not helping trim down the large U.S. wheat surplus. Technically, July Chicago wheat remains in a downtrend, but with noncommercial traders heavily net short and weather threats in play, there is the risk of short-covering. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.70 Thursday, priced 56 cents below the July contract and up from its 2017 low. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.27, also up from its low in 2017.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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