DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

For a second day, corn, wheat, and soybeans are starting higher, and the challenge will be to see if soybeans are ready to hold support this time near their lowest prices in a year. Gold and crude oil are also starting modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index continues to inch higher.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

May corn was up a half-cent after a quiet overnight session. Tuesday morning's weather map shows rain in southern Kansas, around the Great Lakes, and in the northeastern U.S. with more expected later this week across the eastern Midwest and northeastern U.S. In South America, this week's forecast is for mostly light amounts with heavier amounts targeted in southern Brazil. Corn is still finding support from Friday's 90 million acre planting estimate, but in the bigger picture, there are still bearish concerns from the anticipation of record crops from Argentina and Brazil. May corn is likely to hold a sideways range after Friday's bullish reversal. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.30 Friday, priced 38 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.09, supported by expectations for more rate hikes in 2017. Energies and metals are steady to higher while softs are mostly lower.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were up 2 1/2 cents early, encountering a pause in selling near their lowest prices in nearly a year. It is too early to tell if the pause is anything more than temporary, and if prices do find support at these levels, it will be more because the sell side is running out of gas as there is nothing bullish currently happening for soybeans. The private firm, Safras & Mercado said Brazil's soybean harvest is 67% complete and raised its estimate to 111.5 million metric tons or 4.1 billion bushels. That followed last week's estimate of 111.0 mmt from Informa Economics and adds to the bearish predicament that soybean prices find themselves in. May soybeans remain in a downtrend, under obvious bearish pressure. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.62 Monday, priced 76 cents below the May contract and at its lowest price in nearly a year.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat was up 1 3/4 cents early, helped by light commercial buying in both the Chicago and Kansas City contracts. Rain is falling in southern Kansas early Tuesday and will help winter wheat conditions, but DTN's seven-day forecast expects mostly light amounts in the southwestern Plains. Late Monday, USDA said 14% of the winter wheat crop was rated poor to very poor, putting DTN's Winter Wheat Index at 126, down from 147 when USDA last rated crops in November, and down from 154 a year ago. There is still time for conditions to change before harvest, but an all-wheat yield lower than 2016's 52.6 bushels seems likely, so far. May Chicago wheat is likely to hold a sideways trend after Friday's bullish reversal. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.85 Monday, priced 43 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.