DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 1/4 cents in the May contract and down 3 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 1/2 cent in the May contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 10 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 12 3/4 cents in the May Kansas City and down 7 1/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 at 101.21. April gold is up $2.70 at $1,204.10 while May silver is up 7 cents and May copper is up $0.0330. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 28 at 20,875. April crude oil is down $0.13 at $48.36. April heating oil is down $0.0041 while April RBOB gasoline is down $0.0208 and April natural gas is up $0.030.

Corn:

May corn closed down 3 1/4 cents, still affected by last week's selling and favorable crop conditions in South America. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercial traders still bullish in corn as of March 7 with 198,890 contracts net long, up 4,443 from the previous week, but it is fair to assume that noncommercial liquidation has played a part in corn's selling since March 7. While South America's crops remain a bearish threat, demand for corn continues to do well. Monday morning, USDA said 60.9 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up 75% in 2016-17 from a year ago. USDA has been slow to raise its export estimate, but perhaps the quarterly grain stocks report will convince USDA on June 30. Friday's new eight-week low turned the trend lower for May corn. There were 49 deliveries of March corn early Monday with 1,607 contracts still open early, ahead of Tuesday's expiration for March grain futures. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.23 Friday, priced 41 cents below the May contract and at a new five-week low. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 while most other commodities are higher.

Soybeans:

May soybeans were down a half-cent in a quiet day of trading that saw May soybean oil end down 0.56 while May soybean meal was up $2.20. After a bullish performance in 2016, palm oil prices continue to slide lower, finishing down 1.7% overnight near their lowest price in four months. The larger bearish concern for soybeans however has been Brazil's advancing harvest, which is 56% finished, according to the private firm, AgRural. This week's forecast remains favorable for further harvest progress. Related to Brazil, we have seen U.S. soybean export activity slow lately and that happened again in Monday's inspections report. USDA said 25.8 mb of soybeans were inspected last week, down from 36.3 mb the previous week. Total inspections are still up 11% in 2016-17 from a year ago and USDA added news that 4.4 mb of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bullish but gradually cutting back on positions. As of March 7, noncommercials were net long 143,379 contracts, down 4,813 from the previous week. Last week's new eight-week low in May soybeans turned the trend lower while new-crop soybeans remain supported in a sideways range. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.27 Friday, priced 80 cents below the May contract and at a new eight-week low. Among March contracts, there were 193 soybeans, 90 meal, and 209 bean oil delivered early Monday.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat fell a dime Monday, posting its lowest close in five weeks as concerns about a return of cold temperatures and dry weather in the southwestern Plains proved insufficient to support prices. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightly bearish in Chicago wheat with 26,482 contracts net short as of March 7, but they have probably added to those positions since then. DTN's seven-day forecast remains mostly dry for the southwestern Plains, but the uptrend that started early in 2017 ran out of momentum with last week's USDA report serving as a reminder that U.S. wheat supplies remain plentiful. The trend in May Chicago wheat has now turned lower, but sideways trading is more likely with a new winter wheat crop on its way. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.95 Friday, priced 45 cents below the May contract and down from its highest price in eight months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.62 and was near its highest price in eight months. Among March contracts, trading in wheat is nearly done and there were 12 deliveries of Chicago wheat early Monday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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