DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 1/2 cents in the May contract and down 2 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 12 cents in the May contract and down 8 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 2 cents in the May Chicago contract, down 1 1/2 cents in the May Kansas City and down 2 3/4 cents in the May Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.16 at 101.81. April gold is down $9.50 at $1,216.00 while May silver is down 24 cents and May copper is down $0.0350. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 21 at 20,933. April crude oil is up $0.10 at $53.30. April heating oil is up $0.0143 while April RBOB gasoline is up $0.0076 and April natural gas is down $0.072.

Corn:

May corn closed down 2 1/2 cents along with most other commodities on the board as investors appeared to take a "risk-off" approach on Tuesday. Row-crop prices also continue to be limited by generally favorable crop conditions in South America. This week's forecast expects only light rain amounts over central Brazil, but has heavier rain in store for southern Brazil. The most bullish support for corn at this time of year continues to come from the demand side of the market and, early Tuesday, USDA said 4.7 million bushels (120,000 metric tons) of U.S. corn were sold to unknown destinations for 2016-17. With U.S. corn shipments up 68% in 2016-17 from a year ago, USDA may increase its export estimate in Thursday's WASDE report or wait until after the March 31 Grain Stocks report, but at some point, a higher estimate seems well-deserved. Technically, May corn continues to trend gradually higher but is at risk of leaving behind a lower high, which is a potentially bearish change. There were five deliveries of March corn and 36 deliveries of March ethanol early Tuesday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.37 Monday, priced 42 cents below the May contract and near its highest price in eight months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.16 while most other commodities finished lower.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 12 cents Tuesday after the private firm, Safras & Mercado, estimated 47% of Brazil's soybean harvest complete, up from 41% a year ago at this time. This week's forecast is also favorable for further harvest progress in central Brazil as heavier rain amounts will be confined to Parana and Rio Grande do Sul at the country's southern end. Soy products also fell lower Tuesday with May soybean meal down $2.40, posting its lowest close in seven weeks. A Dow Jones survey of analysts expects USDA to raise its soybean crop estimate from 104.0 million metric tons to 106.1 mmt in Thursday's WASDE report while other private estimates have gone as high as 109.0 mmt. As bearish as that sounds, the level of global demand for soybeans is still not clear for 2016-17 or beyond and so it remains interesting that May soybeans continue to hold within a sideways trading range, so far. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.57 Monday, priced 80 cents below the May contract and also within a sideways range. Among March contracts, there were 193 soybeans, 234 meal, and 297 bean oil delivered early Tuesday.

Wheat:

May Chicago wheat closed down 2 cents, giving back part of Monday's gain, but showing no effort to trade lower after an early morning sell-off. Wheat prices were also helped late in the session by news of wildfires and windy conditions in central Kansas. Wheat continues to wrestle with the bearishness of burdensome U.S. supplies on one hand and bullish concerns of early spring weather and dry conditions in the southwestern Plains on the other. Thursday's WASDE report will probably not add much to the conversation with the estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks likely to stay comfortably above one billion bushels. Late Monday however, state NASS offices did report good-to-excellent ratings for winter wheat in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas at 43%, 43%, and 34% respectively, down from a year ago in all three states. Technically, May Chicago wheat remains in an uptrend, but sideways trading seems more likely until we know more about the next crops of winter wheat. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.12 Monday, priced 47 cents below the May contract and near its highest price in eight months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.78 and was near its highest price in eight months. Early Tuesday, there were 332 deliveries of March Chicago wheat.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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