DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1 1/4 cents in the March contract and down 1 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 8 1/4 cents in the March contract and down 2 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 11 cents in the March Chicago contract, up 9 1/4 cents in the March Kansas City, and up 11 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.35 at 100.61. April gold is down $3.20 at $1,236.30 while March silver is up 2 cents and March copper is down $0.0115. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 138 at 20,192. March crude oil is up $0.74 at $53.08. March heating oil is up $0.0042 while March RBOB gasoline is up $0.0100 and March natural gas is up $0.004.

Corn:

March corn closed down 1 1/4 cents Thursday, even after USDA reduced its estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks from 2.355 to 2.320 billion bushels, a little less than was expected and thanks to a 25 million bushel boost in ethanol demand. USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks also fell, from 220.98 to 217.56 million metric tons, largely due to a 4 mmt increase the estimate of China's corn demand. Neither crop estimate for Brazil or Argentina was changed this time around, but Brazil's government increased its corn crop estimate to 87.4 mmt early Thursday, above USDA's 86.5 mmt. Earlier Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 38.3 million bushels and 44.3 mb respectively, a neutral to bullish combination for the week that has total exports up 67% in 2016-17 from a year ago but apparently not high enough yet for USDA to increase its export estimate. March corn continues to trend gradually higher and is wrestling with the January high of $3.71. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.34 Wednesday, priced 37 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in seven months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index continues to find support and is trading up 0.35 while March crude oil is up 74 cents a barrel.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed down 8 1/4 cents even though Thursday's numbers from USDA were neutral to bullish, if taken at face value. USDA kept its estimate of 2016-17 U.S. ending soybean stocks unchanged at 420 mb, slightly more than was expected. Brazil's soybean crop estimate was unchanged at 104.0 mmt while Argentina's estimate was reduced 1.5 mmt to a higher-than-expected 55.5 mmt. The resulting estimate of world ending soybean stocks was less than expected at 80.38 mmt, but may not be taken seriously as other estimates put Brazil's soybean crop somewhere between 105.0 and 107.0 mmt. Earlier Thursday, USDA said last week's U.S. export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 19.7 mb and 60.3 mb respectively, a bullish combination that puts total exports up 21% in 2016-17 from a year ago. USDA also said 3.9 mb (107,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown for 2016-17. Even with bearish concerns about Brazil's advancing harvest, March soybeans continue to trend gradually higher in roller coaster fashion this winter. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.83 Wednesday, priced 76 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat closed up 11 cents, posting its highest close in five months with encouragement from bullish changes in this month's USDA estimates. USDA reduced its estimate of 2016-17 U.S. ending wheat stocks from 1.186 bb to 1.139 bb, helped by a 50-mb increase in the wheat export estimate. That may sound odd given that U.S. wheat exports are already close to their estimated pace, but USDA went on to take a total of 4.5 mmt of production away from India and Kazakhstan and also increased China's demand estimate by 1 mmt. That resulted in a lower estimate of world ending wheat stocks, now at 248.61 mmt or 34% of annual use and gives the U.S. a little better chance to move some wheat. USDA said earlier that last week's export sales and shipments of U.S. wheat totaled 19.4 mb and 22.3 mb, a bullish combination for the week. Thursday's new estimates aren't drastic changes in wheat supplies, but did get a bullish enough response that sent March Chicago wheat to a new high, keeping the trend pointed higher. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.95 Wednesday, priced 38 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.51 and down from its highest price in seven months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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