DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 2 1/2 cents in the March contract and down 3 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 5 3/4 cents in the March contract and down 2 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 2 1/2 cents in the March Chicago contract, up 2 1/2 cents in the March Kansas City, and up 9 1/4 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is up 0.40 at 100.41. February gold is down $8.90 at $1,188.90 while March silver is down $0.17 and March copper is down $0.0420. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 26 at a new high of 20,094. March crude oil is up $1.05 at $53.80. March heating oil is up $0.0320 while March RBOB gasoline is up $0.0144 and March natural gas is up $0.090.

Corn:

March corn closed down 2 1/2 cents Thursday, finding no urgent argument to take prices higher. It probably also did not help grains that Mexico's President Nieto cancelled next week's meeting with President Trump as tensions build between the two. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 54.0 million bushels and 38.5 mb respectively, a neutral combination for the week that puts 2016-17 exports up 68% from last year's depressed pace. Most of traders' focus for corn and soybeans is on South America's weather, which remains mostly favorable in Brazil with more rain expected in central Brazil the next five days. Argentina has been too wet in the north-central region and there is a chance for more rain there again late next week while southern Argentina remains dry. Another bearish factor for corn showed up as significant moisture improvement in the southeastern U.S. in Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor. March corn remains in a gradual uptrend with Brazil's new corn exports five months away. South American crops remain a bearish risk for prices in 2017. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Wednesday, priced 36 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.40, finding support near 100.00 while traders wait to assess President Trump's new policies.

Soybeans:

March soybeans closed down 5 3/4 cents Thursday, attracting light commercial selling while Brazil's soybean harvest makes progress. Soybeans were also pulled lower by a 0.40 drop in March soybean oil, which took prices to a new two-month low. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 19.8 mb and 46.4 mb respectively, bullish enough to show total exports up 20% in 2016-17 from a year ago but also showing a pattern of declining sales as Brazil's harvest gets closer to ports. China and Mexico were last week's top buyers -- two countries that President Trump wants to negotiate tougher trade terms with. In spite of numerous bearish concerns, March soybeans remain in an uptrend with resistance at last week's high of $10.80. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.79 Wednesday, priced 76 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in six months.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat spent most of the day lower under the weight of a higher U.S. dollar, but eked out a 2 1/2-cent gain by the close, thanks to a late move of commercial buying. Wheat did have one small piece of bullish news early Thursday when USDA said last week's export sales of wheat reached a new marketing year high of 31.4 million bushels, thanks to Morocco, last week's top buyer of both, wheat and soybean oil. Wheat shipments totaled a less impressive 10.9 mb, keeping total exports slightly below USDA's estimated pace for 2016-17. So far, HRW has been the most popular variety in 2016-17 with exports up 93% from a year ago. HRS wheat exports have seen an 18% increase from a year ago and that helped March Minneapolis wheat close up 9 1/4 cents. March Chicago wheat continues to trade roughly sideways this winter with U.S. supplies burdensome. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.85 Wednesday, priced 39 cents below the March contract and down from its highest price in five months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.45 and down from its highest price in six months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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