DTN Closing Grain Comments

Commercials Lift Grains Higher

Todd Hultman , DTN Grains Analyst
(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn closed up 4 3/4 cents in the December contract and up 4 cents in the July. Soybeans were up 19 1/4 cents in the November contract and up 17 1/2 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 7 1/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 3 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City and up 1 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.07 at 98.61. December gold is down $6.40 at $1,267.20 while December silver is down $0.14 and December copper is up $0.0050. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1 at 18,170. December crude oil is down $0.72 at $49.24. December heating oil is down $0.0115 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0181 and December natural gas is down $0.169.


December corn closed almost a nickel higher Wednesday, fueled by commercial buying, which suggests that corn's increased demand in 2016-17 is starting to find some fans even before harvest is two-thirds finished. Moderate to heavy rain rolled across the northern Midwest Wednesday and will be a problem where fields were already too wet for harvest, but don’t expect a reduction in USDA's crop estimate because of rain. So far U.S. corn exports in 2016-17 are up 80% from a year ago and Thursday morning's report is likely to show more of the same, while Brazil is low on supplies for at least the next several months. December corn continues to trend slowly higher as traders look past harvest and recognize a good pace of demand. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.06 Tuesday, priced 43 cents below the December contract and down from its highest price in three months. In outside markets, most other commodities were lower while grains and cattle finished higher.


November soybeans posted their highest close in nine weeks, the first bullish change in trend since prices peaked in mid-June. Commercial buying was evident in both, soybeans and meal and took December soybean meal to its highest close in two months. Concerns about Wednesday's rains in the northern Midwest may have been a small part of the buying, but market clues lean more to the demand side of the market with USDA's next export sales report due out Thursday morning. December soybean oil was in a bullish uptrend already but ended down .08 Wednesday in quiet trading. Wednesday's new nine-week high in November soybeans flies in the face of this fall's record harvest and USDA's higher ending stocks estimate for 2016-17, but the catch is that we don't yet have a credible estimate of demand in 2016-17, so it's possible that this market is more bullish than has been anticipated. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.17 Tuesday, priced 74 cents below the November contract and up from its lowest price in six months.


December Chicago wheat closed 7 1/4 cents higher Wednesday with an unexpected surge of commercial buying that rescued prices from another test of $4.00. Wednesday's rains will briefly interrupt wheat planting in Michigan, but the main culprit behind the day's higher prices is the demand side of the market, possibly helped a little by Canada's problems finishing the spring wheat harvest. Egypt was back in the news Wednesday as a buyer of 420,000 metric tons of wheat from Russia and Romania. That does not help the U.S. much, but at least the world's wheat is moving. The southwestern U.S. Plains have been dry lately, but overall, winter wheat crops are rated higher than usual as we head toward winter. Chicago wheat continues to trade near its lowest spot price in 10 years, but is holding steady, thanks to commercial support. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.57 Tuesday, priced 47 cents below the December contract and down from its highest price in eight weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.04, down from its highest price in eight weeks.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1


Todd Hultman