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It took awhile, but La Nina finally showed up this winter. It didn't have a profound effect on the pattern until January and peaked in February, but it is on its way out, albeit slowly. The weak nature and limited time frame have meant there are other smaller players in the driver's seat for spring weather, those that are difficult to forecast beyond the span of about a month. So, writing this forecast at the beginning of February to meet the magazine's deadline means that we do not have a lot of certainty. We rely on long-range models and a few analog years to give us some ideas, but it's hard to trust them when we aren't certain of what types of patterns we should be seeing. So, the forecasts here are tentative and come with a grain of salt. We do have concerns about spring planting this year, however.

Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington): What should have been a very active pattern over the winter only came in spurts, but there is almost no drought in the region, and that should be helpful for winter crops awakening from dormancy and for spring planting. March may leave some areas a little too wet, but our forecast is somewhat drier and warmer for April and especially May, which could be nice for getting planting done in a timely fashion.

Southwest: If there was a region that really saw a La Nina pattern, it was the Southwest, where dryness has brought expanding drought and the devastating wildfires past peak season. Hotter and drier conditions are forecast to continue through the spring, with more drought development and lower overall snowmelt for rivers and irrigation. This is a region that is forecast to have some significant troubles.

Northern Plains: Though precipitation has been coming through regularly, it has been light for most of the winter season. The February forecast is calling for some enhanced snow, so some places may be in better shape than others. But, snow cover at the end of January was quite low. Drought has been an issue for months, and that continues into spring. The longer La Nina carries on, the colder and drier the setup should be during the spring. DTN forecasts issues with cold lingering through April before warming up in May. That might be fine for soil temperatures and planting, but there is not an abundance of rain or snow in the forecast, and the drought concerns may continue to grow as temperatures rise.

Central and Southern Plains: Periodic rain and snow through the winter has helped to curtail drought development in the region over the winter. But, we didn't see much in terms of drought reduction either, which is spotty through the region and more focused across the north. Shots of cold air may have caused some winterkill, as well. The longer La Nina carries on this spring, the lower the rainfall potential, which could mean drought development for winter wheat at critical time periods and falling soil moisture during spring planting.

Coastal Texas and Louisiana: A round of heavy snow fell in the region in mid-January, and the pattern was more favorable for precipitation than La Nina usually suggests. This puts the region in better shape than we expected for spring planting. However, the warmer and drier outlook, at least through the first half of spring, could mean drought developing in some areas that weren't as wet as others during the winter.

Midwest: Drought lingered over the northern half of the region over the winter, though the February forecast did call for more storms that may have turned up at the right time. Otherwise, the snowpack was dismal for most of the winter outside of the prone lake-effect areas. And, that will lead to some concerns about soil moisture for spring planting. However, the longer La Nina lasts, the more likely we are to see above-normal precipitation in the Ohio Valley with the opposite concerns of being too cold and wet through spring that may bring planting and early growth challenges.

Delta/Lower Mississippi Valley: Systems moved through regularly during the winter season, atypical for a La Nina winter, but ensured that drought would not be a problem for early spring planting. With the Ohio Valley seeing increased rainfall, the northern sections of the region could be a little on the "too wet" side and may need to wait out a touch. This does suggest better moisture for early growth, however.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: It was very dry for much of the winter, causing a lot of drought to build up, especially along the coast. But, the February forecast calls for enhanced precipitation from several systems moving through that should have reversed some of this trend. The spring forecast is also calling for continued seasonal or slightly above-normal rainfall for the spring, which will help to reverse the drier trend if realized but could leave some spots a bit too wet to get planting going early. This is especially true for those west of the mountains, which had better precipitation during the winter and more lake-effect snow.

Southeast: La Nina was not much of a contributor to the pattern here, as systems frequently moved through this region during the winter. They even brought rare heavy snow to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. With La Nina weakening, the trend should be for more variable weather patterns for the spring, especially early, which may cause some slower warming of soils. But, it would also provide better chances for increased soil moisture and a reduction of the remaining drought in the region.

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-- Read John's weather blog at https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- You may email John at john.baranick@dtn.com

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