Call the Market

Happy New Year, cattlemen! 2024 was an exhilarating year, where cow-calf producers had an opportunity to capitalize on the market's strong position in numerous ways. Whether operators scored all-time high feeder cattle prices or were strategic in their cull-cow marketings and able to market them at lofty prices, this past year was unrivaled.

But now that we are officially embarking on the 2025 calendar year, it's time to focus on the market dynamics currently at play and strategize for the year ahead. With that in mind, I'd like to highlight two main topics that will be worth monitoring through the early part of this year.

First, it would be remiss to overlook all the dynamics currently taking shape in the feeder cattle complex. It's normal for the feeder cattle market to rally in January and potentially even into February as the market takes a two-week hiatus over the Christmas and New Year holidays. Afterwards, as long as the weather isn't a brute, buyers normally flock to local sale barns to fill their orders and are eager to purchase long-weaned calves. It's likely this market norm will again be the case this year, and potentially even more so than in "normal" years, as buyers realize the closer we get to turn-out season, the more expensive grass-calves are going to become.

But what we also need to be aware of in the first quarter of 2025 is at some point it's likely cattle imports from Mexico will open up again, and the calves that would have normally been imported in late November and through December will indeed arrive. This will likely be noticeable in feeder cattle placements in an upcoming Cattle on Feed report, and we need to be aware of this factor. At this point, we have heard nothing regarding when Mexican cattle imports may be resumed, but we will continue to monitor the issue.

Secondly, later this month, on Thursday, Jan. 31, the yearly Cattle Inventory report will be released. Last year, the report revealed the beef cowherd at the start of 2024 stood at a record low of 28.2 million head. It's expected this year's report will showcase an even lower number of beef cows, somewhere around 28 million head. But with interest rates still high and the overall cost of operating still a burden on producers' profitably, cattlemen have been skeptical about either buying more cows or jumping back into the business altogether.

And last, but certainly not least, even though cattlemen are expected to have another fruitful year in 2025, so long as beef demand remains as resilient as it did in 2024, that doesn't mean the year will be without its own unique challenges. And while it's easy to become lackadaisical in monitoring the market when prices are near record highs, it's still our duty to market our cattle to the absolute best of our ability; we can't do so if we don't know what's transpiring throughout the marketplace.

So, friends, I strongly encourage you to make the absolute most of this upcoming year as you possibly can. Look back at this past year and think about what you could have done differently to secure even more profit and remember -- it's never too early to begin thinking about marketing strategies for the year ahead.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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