2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour - Extras

MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- While the 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour focuses on results for the top 11 corn-and-soybean producing states, farmers raise these crops across the country. Production in southern states may not move national futures markets, but they matter in the local context of grain markets.

Texas, for instance, brings a lot of corn in from across the country to feed its cattle, and the size of its crop affects how much feedlot operators need to buy from other places. Kentucky uses a lot of the corn it grows to feed poultry, distill bourbon and make food. Delta states, with their southern climate and proximity to export markets, sometimes have export opportunities for growers the Midwest doesn't.

DTN's yield models, which power the Digital Yield Tour, create forecasts for more states than we officially include in our annual review of crop conditions. We've included those estimates below along with contextual weather background and observations from farmers.

CORN
STATE	DTN 2025	RMA 5-YR AVG
Arkansas	158.1	159.2
Kentucky	185.1	184.7
Louisiana	157.5	155.6
Tennessee	176.0	161.1
Texas	127.4	120.2

SOYBEANS
STATE	DTN 2025	RMA 5-YR AVG
Arkansas	44.6	45.0
Kentucky	53.1	54.6
Louisiana	45.8	40.5
Tennessee	50.0	48.5
Texas	30.1	23.7

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its eighth season, this is the second that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

TEXAS:

"With a state as big as Texas, weather conditions averaged over the whole state can be a bit deceiving," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Rainfall has been decent this year in the Texas Panhandle, where much of the corn acreage is located; but in the central and eastern portions of the state, acres are more scattered, with conditions on the crop harder to pin down."

West Texas has had consistent rainfall during much of the spring and summer and is in better shape than most years. "Drought is not found here for the first time since I can remember so late in the season," Baranick said.

Lack of drought is a bit deceiving in central and eastern portions of the state. Massive flooding in July did affect some corn acres, although precipitation has been harder to come by since.

"The state will be hard to diagnose for yield this year, I think," Baranick said.

Mark Welch, professor and grain marketing economist at Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, told DTN both crops appear to be faring well.

"Corn yields look good in most areas of Texas," he said. "The crop from south Texas up the coast and across central Texas has already been harvested or is drying down ready to be cut. The irrigated crop up in the panhandle follows more of a Midwest growing season, should be starting to dent mid-August. I am not aware of any widespread disease or pest issues. I look for an above-average state yield, 130 bushels. The 10-year average is 126."

The DTN crop models estimated a 127.39 bushel-per-acre (bpa) corn yield average in Texas, which is 7.2 bpa higher than the state's five-year average of 120.16 bushels.

About 95,000 acres of soybeans were planted in Texas this growing season, which according to USDA was a reduction of more than 13,000 acres. DTN estimates Texas soybeans at about 30.14 bpa and above the five-year average of 23.68 bpa. The record soybean yield for Texas was 38 bpa in 2023.

ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA:

"The Delta region (Lower Mississippi Valley) had a sort of Jekyll-and-Hyde type of growing season," Baranick said. "Very heavy rain characterized the early half of the season, encapsulated by a double-digit rainfall event in early April across the north."

Rain was hard to stop in June, leaving some areas very wet and eliminating most drought.

"But around mid-July, the rains started to shut down, temperatures soared, and stress began to mount," he said. "Isolated showers since then have not been able to keep up with demand, and dryness and drought have started to enter the picture again."

Baranick questions what impact the shift from very wet to very dry will have on crop development, noting that the Digital Yield Tour's estimates only include data through Aug. 1.

Phil Horton is the University of Arkansas Extension county agent for Arkansas County, which has the largest number of corn acres in the state. He said most crops in the county are irrigated, and thus corn and soybean crops can still yield well despite summer dryness.

Horton said farmers are beginning to harvest corn, but he hasn't heard any estimates.

"From talking to folks, they seem to think yields are going to be still pretty good," Horton said. "It sounds like it is in line with last year and we were close to average then."

DTN's yield models as of Aug. 1 estimates corn would average 158.1 bpa and soybeans 44.6 bpa, right in line with USDA's Risk Management Agency five-year averages.

Horton suspects soybeans, however, might be a little below average in 2025 and definitely below 2024. The growing season last year featured near perfect weather with very few issues with pests and diseases. Arkansas farmers were not as fortunate this year, he said.

"It was so wet in April, there's a lot of soybean fields got planted later than normal," he said.

Pests are also more prevalent this year, including bollworms, soybean looper, saltmarsh caterpillar and steam or stink bugs.

As harvest begins, Horton said farmers are concerned about profitability with extremely low commodity prices.

Louisiana's average corn yield, at 157.4 bpa, is estimated to beat its five-year year by nearly 2 bpa. Soybean yields could exceed the five-year average by more than 5 bpa, with a forecast of 45.8 bpa in early August.

KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE:

"Much of Tennessee and Kentucky joined the Delta and southern Midwest in heavy rain in the front half of the growing season," Baranick said. "Those double-digit rains were followed by additional heavy rains, which caused a mess for getting seed into the ground."

Ryan Bivens said his farm in Hodgenville, Kentucky, received 18 inches of rain over six days in early April. By the end of May, the farm had surpassed its average annual rainfall total.

He figured it would all average out, and they'd get very little rain the rest of the year.

"Lo and behold, it didn't," he said. "We've been catching rains along the way."

Baranick said rainfall did start shutting now in mid-July across Tennessee and Kentucky. "We've seen some better coverage that sort of mirrors what has happened in Indiana and Ohio, where pockets of dryness have popped up with additional heat that could be taking bushels off the top of yields."

Bivens calls it a good, average corn crop, which kind of surprises him because of the wet start.

"From the road, the corn looks really good, but I've been putting fungicide on corn, and going through it, there's a lot of holes," he said.

The DTN yield models forecast Kentucky's corn yields averaging 185.1 bpa, slightly above the five-year average, with soybean yields falling slightly below average at 53.1 bpa.

In Tennessee, DTN's models see the average corn yield, at 176 bpa, exceeding the five-year average by nearly 15 bpa. Soybeans are estimated at 50 bpa, up 1.5 bpa from average.

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Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

DTN Environmental Editor Todd Neely and DTN Staff Reporter Russ Quinn contributed to this report.

Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @KatieD_DTN

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