2025 Digital Yield Tour - Missouri

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- Despite tassel wrap and torrential rains that led to flooding, washouts and replants in many parts of the state, Missouri farmers may set a statewide average yield record for corn for a second consecutive year, according to 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour estimates from Aug. 1. The state also looks to harvest a soybean crop with what could be the best statewide average yield in the past five seasons.

Missouri's current statewide average yield record for corn, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production Report, is 183 bpa, set in 2024.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 187.7 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2024: 170.1 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 166.3 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 50.4 bpa

-- DTN 2024: 49.7 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 51.0 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is now in its eighth season, this is the second year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

WEATHER COMMENTS

"Like the stretch from Illinois to Ohio, the state of Missouri has gone through some rather interesting weather throughout the course of the season so far," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Heavy rain in early April across the Bootheel led to significant flooding, and the rains were pretty active throughout May there as well. Late plantings were likely. Severe weather events have been rather frequent as well, though hail has not been as big of a contributor this year," Baranick said.

"In contrast, northern Missouri seemed to be skipped more often from active streaks (of storms) to the southern and northern Corn Belt in the early part of the season. Rain was a little more sporadic there, though interestingly, frequent enough that what drought developed early this summer vanished. There could have been some issues in spots with pollination because of the sporadic rainfall, but events were frequent and heavy enough to make the state completely drought-free at the end of July, the only state in our tour that had ... (zero D0, abnormally dry) or greater drought on the Drought Monitor at that time. That's changing a bit here in August as the south, in particular, has gotten drier, so the weather has not been completely favorable for the state and will need to be watched closely on how this crop finishes out," Baranick said.

"Heat has been steady but not extreme," Baranick added. "We've seen long stretches of 90-plus temperatures, especially in July, but a lot of those temperatures have been short of 95 degrees, and the overall bump in precipitation has probably allowed a lot of the corn and soybean crops to grow pretty rapidly this year."

MARKET COMMENTS

"It is interesting that a year ago, at the beginning of August, the Missouri soybean crop was very highly rated at 77% good to excellent, and in 2025 is again in stellar condition at 79% good to excellent," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. "Although only a 2% difference, the DTN Digital Yield Tour in 2025 is estimating the state's yield at a 10% increase compared to 2024. A larger percentage is rated as fair, however, and despite some excessive moisture early in the season, the crop has seemingly not suffered any adverse effects," noted Montgomery.

"Soybean conditions according to USDA in Missouri at the beginning of August are very similar to that of corn, with 76% of the crop rated good to excellent, as compared to an also strong rating in 2024 of 74%," he said. "Last year's Digital Yield Tour estimated a yield of 49.7, so a similar to slightly improved yield is very reasonable to expect, given the good growing conditions through the summer."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Zach Grossman, Tina, Missouri:

Zach Grossman said conditions this spring allowed him to begin planting earlier than he had ever planted before on his farm, which includes acreage in both Carroll and Livingston counties in northwest Missouri. He planted some soybeans in late March, which was a first.

"I planted beans for a while, then switched over to corn," he said. "Then, we got rain on Easter that kept us out until about Mother's Day. After that, we finished up corn before getting back on the beans, which we wrapped up around May 25. We got great stands everywhere and really didn't have to replant anything."

For most of June, conditions were dry, and Grossman said that by the end of the month, they were feeling pretty desperate.

"We were in a dry hole. It seemed like everything was going around us on all sides," he recalled. "We had corn rolling leaves, and it was coming up on tasseling time and just begging for rain. Then, toward the end of June, the skies opened up. We got 2.5 inches overnight that came pretty nice, and it's been raining ever since."

Grossman noted no issues with pollination. The ears that he's pulled are averaging about 18 rows around with lengths of 38 to 40 kernels.

"Dad pulled an ear this past weekend, and he said it was already at two-thirds milk line, so we'll likely be rolling the combine on some corn by the 10th or 15th of September," Grossman said. "We probably won't be able to run corn very long before some of those early beans are ready."

Overall, he said summer weather conditions haven't brought a lot of stress to the crop, especially during reproductive stages. They employed an aggressive fungicide program this season, applying product with multiple modes of action to every corn acre and roughly 90% of soybean acres. While they have seen a little Southern rust develop in the corn, tar spot has not shown up yet in their fields. Disease seems to be absent in their soybeans.

"Pod counts are great," Grossman said. "They all look good, but the earlier the beans, the better."

In 2024, Grossman said the farm averaged 205 bpa on corn and 63 bpa on soybeans. If conditions hold, he's cautiously optimistic that they can do as well as last year.

"Between Livingston and Carroll counties, I think we'll see a lot of 180-to-200-bushel corn. If we can pull off a 200-bpa farm average again, we'd be tickled to death," he said. "On the beans, we'd love to average 60 bpa, but they could still use another rain here this month.

"I count my blessings and consider myself lucky," Grossman said. "We've got all the rain that we've needed, but we've never gotten those toad-strangler rains or anything that's been detrimental to our crops. It's kind of been another 'Goldilocks' summer for us. Not too much and not too little, just enough."

The DTN Digital Yield Tour model predicts that both corn and soybeans in Carroll County, Missouri, will exceed their RMA five-year average yields of 170.7 bpa and 52.4 bpa, respectively.

-- Travis Dixon, Laddonia, Missouri:

While planting conditions in northwest Missouri were ideal for Grossman, Travis Dixon encountered a different set of circumstances in Audrain County in east-central Missouri.

"We had a fairly difficult spring," he recalled. "Early on, planting conditions were pretty good, but the soil was fairly cold, so we held off. Then we ended up with a mucky subsoil that didn't want to dry out, and I didn't really get the seedbed that I wanted."

After he finished planting corn, a violent rainstorm rolled through dumping nearly 6 inches of rain. That was followed by a period of cool weather that stagnated plant growth. Dixon said the conditions led to inconsistency in the corn stands.

"If you really want to ring that (yield) bell, you've got to be consistent from field edge to field edge, and we just weren't this year," he said. "We've got ears bouncing from 14 to 18 rows around with very few 20s."

He noted that fortunately, the rains have continued throughout the summer, allowing a crop with a shallow root system to still thrive. He said that he has encountered some tassel wrap, though it's not been hybrid-specific on his farm.

"It's going to hurt the yield a little bit, but it's not going to be as bad as we originally thought," Dixon said. "Last year, we averaged 241 bpa, which was our best year. We're going to be down from that. I feel like we'll be 200 bpa or a little better on average."

Full-season soybeans look really good, he said. Plants are averaging 20 to 21 main stem nodes with good branching.

"Honestly, one of our biggest things that we're fighting is not insects, it's not disease. It's whitetail deer and raccoons," Dixon added.

The DTN Digital Yield Tour model predicts that both corn and soybeans in Audrain County, Missouri, will exceed their RMA five-year average yields of 155.2 bpa and 50.2 bpa, respectively.

Watch a video of Dixon discussing his 2025 season here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- Trent Haggard, Kennett, Missouri:

In the Bootheel of southeast Missouri, Trent Haggard of Kennett also dealt with his share of excessive rainfall that led to early-season issues. He recalls one particular 10-inch rain that fell when they already had too much precipitation.

"That 10 inches came, then we got some more after that," he said. "In one field, I planted beans as many as three times. We had really narrow planting windows and very few early. The majority were late, so the crop's behind, even with the massive heat unit numbers in the past three weeks."

Whereas rainfall continued across much of northern and central Missouri, Haggard said in Pemiscot County, where he farms, it made a 180-degree switch to super dry and hot. "It's really been that way until now," he added.

"We definitely had a shallow root system crop-wide to start with, so when we hit that hot, dry spell, we kind of held our breath for a little while to see if we couldn't help those plants develop some more roots before we started pumping water," he said. "But that's a double-edged sword."

Haggard said that as of this week, they've finished irrigating corn as the grain has reached black layer. Harvest will be coming quick should the hot, dry weather continue.

"Until we get into the fields, I wouldn't want to say anything better than average on corn yields right now. I would hope to average 185 bpa, which is disappointing," Haggard said. "In truth, if we're not making 200 on corn and 200 on rice, I am disappointed, given the cost of production.

"Bean yields are going to be all over the place," Haggard added. "I really find it hard to pin it down because I think the spread on the beans is much greater due to those early season conditions."

The DTN Digital Yield Tour model predicts that corn in Pemiscot County, Missouri, will exceed its RMA five-year average yield of 173.8 bpa. However, the model predicts that soybean will fall short of its RMA five-year average yield of 52.4 bpa.

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Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/….

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

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