2025 Digital Yield Tour - Ohio

MT. JULIET, Tenn. (DTN) -- Many Ohio farmers planted corn into early June this year after a wet stretch of weather in early May forced them out of the fields. The state has also faced a battery of hit-or-miss showers and warmer weather than its neighbors. The result is such a wide range of maturities and conditions that makes it hard to gauge potential.

While the weather's been variable, farmers say the crops need more moisture, and they'll take it sooner rather than later. That could put them in position for a soybean crop that exceeds the DTN Digital Yield Tour's forecast and a corn crop that meets it.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 193.7 bushel per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2024: 190.8 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 192.2 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 52.7 bpa

-- DTN 2024: 56.4 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 59 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its eighth season, this is the second that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

WEATHER COMMENTS

"Like Illinois and Indiana, Ohio had a run of wet conditions in the spring, especially across the south where almost 10 inches of rain fell in early April," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "Afterward, rainfall has been a little more consistent during the season than these other two states, but not nearly as heavy. A lot of the events have been light-to-moderate events rather than heavy, and severe weather has been lower as a result. Outside of North Dakota, this state has had the lowest precipitation this summer out of the states we are covering in this tour, though it is still regarded as above normal."

Baranick continued, "It's also the one that has been dealing with heat on a more consistent basis than the other states in our tour. The July time frame, when most of the crop was pollinating, was especially hot, regarded as the 11th warmest July in the last 133 years for the state.

"Crop conditions have consistently been lower than other states in the region this year, and that combination of limited rainfall and higher heat could lead to some production issues for the state, especially if it continues in August," said Baranick.

MARKET COMMENTS

"The Ohio corn crop is one of the more moderately rated across the Corn Belt at 59% good to excellent, with most of the crop falling into the fair-to-good categories," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. "This compares to 2022, where the NASS final yield for the state was 187 bpa. RMA yields tend to trend a touch higher than NASS, however, and considering the DTN models are based on RMA yield data, this leads me to believe 193.7 is a very fair estimate for Ohio's corn yield in 2025," he said.

"Ohio's soybean conditions are also at 59% good to excellent to begin August and are, like corn, towards the middle of the pack compared to peer states across the Midwest. This is slightly behind the five-year average, but the percent rated poor to very poor is also lower than the five-year average," Montgomery said.

"The Digital Yield Tour is estimating an almost 11% decline from the five-year average for the soybean yield. That would be in line with the conditions noted by USDA, although I would lean to an upward bias for the crop's potential, given the strong rainfall and virtually no dryness concerns through the 2025 growing season, assuming there are no pod-filling issues through August," Montgomery said.

OBSERVATIONS

-- Luke Garrabrant, Johnstown, Ohio:

"If we miss the rain Wednesday, what was going to be an average or well-above-average crop is going to start going backwards," said Luke Garrabrant, who farms northeast of Columbus. It's been about two weeks since the last pop-up thunderstorms rolled through. Both his corn and soybeans need moisture to fill.

"It's all going to depend on rain from here on. I mean, I really think I could have a personal-record corn crop if we get rain. If we don't get rain, it's gonna be average or below," he said.

That's despite a planting season that lasted from April 22 to June 8. Garrabrant got all of his soybeans planted right away. "It just seems like our early planted beans just thump the bushels out," he said. "I'm pretty excited about them, except for they're trying to fill pods right now, and it's dry. We know what that does to beans."

Corn planting was a different matter. He got some corn seeded in late April before Mother Nature turned on the soaker hose in early May. He says the early corn looks really good, although there are some minor pollination issues and tip back. On ears he's sampled, he's seeing mostly 16 to 18 kernels around and anywhere from mid-to-low 30s to mid-40s in kernels in length.

His later corn is more variable, with cobs anywhere from 16 to 20 kernels around and 30 to mid-40s in kernels around. Some of those fields are just finishing pollination.

"We've got corn that's dented, that probably going to get shelled here in three weeks. And we've got corn that will probably not even be denting by the time we start shelling corn," he said. He expects it's going to be a long dragged-out harvest.

He added that the entire area is wildly variable because of the summer's sporadic, pop-up rains. Some areas have problems from a mid-July storm that dropped 4 inches of rain in 90 minutes. Other crops got timely planted but didn't catch rain at all.

DTN's 193.7-bpa corn yield estimate for Ohio is possible, but Garrabrant was surprised the soybean estimate, at 52.7 bpa, was lower than the five-year average. "It all depends on the rain," he said.

-- Bill Bayliss, West Mansfield, Ohio:

It was a tough planting season on Bill Bayliss's farm in Logan County. "We don't have the best year going, but then, it's not a bad year. We've just taken the shine off it," he said.

Bayliss said the last week of April and first week of May are the premium planting window, and he started out with soybeans. Mother Nature quickly slammed the door shut with two to three weeks of rain.

"I'm pretty well sold on planting beans first and corn second. Beans take the cold weather better," he said, adding that he feels positive about the bean crop's potential, if it can catch a good rain the latter part of August.

He finished planting his last corn field on June 5, the crop insurance deadline.

The maturity of the corn crop is the most variable he's seen in five or six years, but called it a bump in the road. "It's not a terrible one, but it sure had everybody concerned. I think everybody's adjusted their budgeting down to expect a little less," Bayliss said.

All of the corn has finally tasseled.

"I just don't know what it's going to be like when we actually start to run the combine, when you have some corn that's two or more weeks more mature than other corn. But that's the farming business," he said.

Bayliss currently serves as chair of the Ohio Soybean Board and a director of the U.S. Soybean Export Council. He's heard very few complaints about the corn crop, despite its rocky start, so DTN's statewide corn estimate of 193.7 bpa and soybean estimate of 52.7 bpa could be close.

"In my particular home area, I would say our soybeans are going to be 5 bushels better than that, but our corn might be 15 bushels shy of that," he said.

**

Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

Katie Dehlinger can be reached at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com

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