2025 Digital Yield Tour - Minnesota

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- Despite a year when localized heavy rains again left many fields with drowned-out spots, Minnesota is positioned to challenge the statewide average corn yield record, according to 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour estimates from Aug. 1. The state also looks to harvest a soybean crop near its record.

It's a rebound from 2024 when flooding took the top off production for both corn and soybeans, leading to statewide yields that fell below national averages.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 199.1 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2024: 186.7 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 186.7 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2025: 51.3 bpa

-- DTN 2024: 51.4 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 49.0 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is now in its eighth season, this is the second year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. For more about how those models work, what makes them unique and some of the challenges posed by conditions this growing season, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Updated yield estimates will be shared in a DTN Ag Summit Series webinar on Aug. 19, along with fall weather and market outlooks. You can register for free here: https://dtn.link/….

WEATHER COMMENTS

"Like much of the Midwest, Minnesota started the season with widespread dryness and drought," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said. "But when the pattern started to get more active across the state in April, drought was quickly washed away. Some pockets of dryness held on into June, but they were focused across the Northwoods and not the primary growing areas in the northwest through the central and southern regions," he said.

"Unlike last year, though, the rainfall has not been overly heavy. This year, the rain has been moderate-to-heavy and steady but allowing for drainage across much of the state. There was the derecho that moved through the northwest in June, but the severe weather on the Minnesota side of the Red River was more spotty than farther west.

"Other severe weather events have been more frequent this year, something that may not show up when driving down the road but may be noticed when the combines start to roll. Issues in Minnesota this year are few and far between rather than widespread like we have seen the last several years," Baranick said.

"In my own travels across the state this summer, I have noticed fantastic-looking corn and soybean plants just about everywhere I go. Even the counties that traditionally have lower yields than the rest of the state have tall and dark-green corn from the road, and soybean canopies that are tall and closed. It really is a remarkable sight. Nowhere I have been to has had poor-looking crops. It has all looked fantastic," Baranick said.

MARKET COMMENTS

"The Minnesota crop is also highly rated entering the month of August, with the southern parts of the state receiving between 10 to 15 inches of rain over the past two months," DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said. "I have heard some concerns that the moisture is in excess in some southern areas, but if this proves to be detrimental to yields, it likely won't be known until combines roll this fall. For now, it's hard to argue against a yield estimate that's 5%-plus higher than the five-year average, given the conditions observed through the growing season thus far."

He continued, "It is interesting that the Yield Tour this year is estimating a steady-to-slightly-lower soybean yield for Minnesota as compared to 2024. The crop is rated better, according to weekly USDA updates, at 73% good to excellent to begin August, versus 63% last year. Given the 2024 yield was also above the five-year average, I find it fairly safe to assume that 2025 is on pace to also top the five-year benchmark as well. August weather will likely go a long way in determining by what degree."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Mark Nowak, Wells, Minnesota:

Mark Nowak lives in Faribault County in south-central Minnesota, about 15 miles north of the Iowa border. He said the planter started rolling on his farm in early May.

"Once we got going, I think we went 18 days without a drop of moisture," he said. "It all went into ground that was in good condition. Some guys started to get concerned it was too dry, but stands were excellent."

Then, one night in early June, a toad strangler of a rain fell, leading to drowned-out spots in most fields.

"In one field, it'd be 10 acres, the next might be 1 acre, the next 25 acres," Nowak said. "Very few fields didn't have any. Some guys tried replanting those spots with beans, and then we got another 3.3 inches that drowned them out again.

"Everything that didn't get drowned out looks phenomenal," he continued. "If you're looking at the satellite imagery, it's all dark green and looks fabulous from the air."

Nowak pulled some ears at the end of the first week of August and noted that kernel set was "pretty normal," with filling nearly right to the tip. While talk of "tassel wrap" has dominated national conversations, he said that he's seen very little of it.

"I did pull one ear that maybe 5% of the kernels didn't pollinate," he said. "I pulled four ears yesterday (Aug. 7) and never saw a kernel missing."

Nowak's soybeans are flowering and setting pods. He said it'll be another three weeks before he begins to count pods per plant and beans per pod to assess that crop's yield potential.

"The weed control looks fabulous, and we've had ideal growing weather," he said. "We aren't getting beat up with excessive heat. On those days we've had temperatures above 90 (Fahrenheit), it's for one or two hours in the afternoon. That helps to take any stress off the crop."

He noted that pest and disease pressure has been negligible so far this season. Though they've been trending a little drier recently, there's plenty of subsoil moisture to draw on as the crop heads toward maturity.

The DTN Digital Yield Tour model predicts that both corn and soybeans in Faribault County, Minnesota, will exceed their RMA five-year average yields of 205.1 bpa and 61.1 bpa, respectively. Nowak said his farm's averages should exceed those totals -- as long as favorable growing conditions continue.

-- Ed Dahle, FIRST manager for west-central Minnesota:

As a manager for Farmers' Independent Research of Seed Technologies (FIRST), Ed Dahle oversees corn and soybean yield trial locations in central and west-central Minnesota. He noted that there wasn't a lot of snow during the winter, and spring conditions allowed earlier planting than usual.

"It warmed up, and we were able to get about half of my corn locations planted in April," he said. "Then, the day before Easter, it rained, and we weren't able to get back in the field for about two weeks."

Dahle wrapped up corn planting on May 12 and soybean planting on May 28. Each of his corn plots received above-normal rainfall in June, ranging from 3.4 inches to 6.6 inches above average for the month. One of his cooperating farmers said he had received around 20 inches of rain this season, about 5 inches more than usual.

"I live in Steele County, Minnesota, and the vast majority of fields have drowned-out spots," he said. "The farther north and west you go, it subsides a little."

As he checked plots this past week in McLeod County, he said pollination was complete. The ears he pulled didn't have any missing kernels.

"I didn't notice any tassel wrap issues, and any disease I would say is minimal at this point," he said. "Even with all the rain, I don't see any firing up, so there's still nitrogen left to fill out the ears."

Dahle also checked soybean plots last week. He said the plants were still flowering and setting pods. The pods he checked were split about 50-50 between those containing three beans and those with two beans.

"Beans are made in August, so we'll just have to see how the rest of the month goes," he added. "Right now, there's a lot of pods still to be set."

The DTN Digital Yield Tour model predicts that both corn and soybeans in McLeod County, Minnesota, will exceed their RMA five-year average yields of 194.3 bpa and 53.6 bpa, respectively.

-- Matt Krueger, East Grand Forks, Minnesota:

Snow cover was also limited in northwest Minnesota, where Matt Krueger farms in Polk County. He initially thought that it might lead to earlier planting, but the conditions led to a different set of hurdles.

"Without the snow, it allowed the frost to go in deep, and it took quite a while for that frost to come out," he said. "Some guys were rolling on April 20, and others were pretty persistent on waiting, which I think probably paid off this year. Guys who planted early lost some of the seed vigor because that soil moisture was so cold."

Krueger finished planting at the end of May, and June brought warm weather and decent rains, he said. July storms dumped up to 8 inches in four days in some areas, causing some crop damage, but in others, the crop needed a drink.

"Five miles to the north, I had corn rolling leaves because it was so dry," he said. "Then, at the farm, I was putting pumps in the ditch to help get water off, while 5 miles to the south, I had just the perfect amount of rain. It was crazy."

The heavy rains also hindered herbicide applications.

"The fields aren't perfect this year, but it just kind of is what it is," he said. "We just couldn't get out there in time, and the weeds got a little bigger than we like."

Weather conditions were conducive during pollination, Krueger said, noting that of the ears he's pulled, there might only be 10 to 15 kernels that didn't pollinate. As grain filling continues, he said there's ample water -- but some additional heat wouldn't hurt.

"We were about 100 GDUs (Growing Degree Units) behind the other day, so we'll just have to see what our August looks like," he said. "The big burning question always is when does that 'F-word' (frost) show up."

Krueger said that for a farm average, they look to produce 165- to 170-bushel corn. "I think we're gonna be maybe 5 bushels above that," he added.

Soybeans, on the other hand, may be just below average for the farm, Krueger said, though it's too soon to know much as the crop isn't very far along. Iron chlorosis deficiency has been an issue this season; however, insects and disease pressure haven't materialized so far.

The DTN Digital Yield Tour model predicts that both corn and soybeans in Polk County, Minnesota, will exceed their RMA five-year average yields of 149.2 bpa and 37.4 bpa, respectively.

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Editor's note: DTN will make its proprietary crop yield predictions available to members for the 2026 growing season, in an interactive experience. Members will be able to see bi-weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level. The yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This site will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://dtn.link/…

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

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