DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices saw mixed moves again during the second week of November 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Average retail prices for five of the eight major fertilizers were higher compared to last month while prices for the remaining three were lower. None of the moves were significant, which DTN designates as anything 5% or more.

The five fertilizers with slightly higher prices than last month were DAP with an average price of $717 per ton, MAP $811/ton, potash $511/ton, anhydrous $843/ton and UAN28 $361/ton.

The three fertilizers with just slightly lower prices were urea with an average price of $574/ton, 10-34-0 $613/ton and UAN32 $415/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was $0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.51/lb.N, UAN28 $0.64/lb.N and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) recently reiterated its opposition to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) proposed rule to tighten national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), according to a news release (https://www.tfi.org/…). The organization also voiced support for legislation to prohibit the EPA from altering the standard at this time.

According to the government's own data, PM2.5 emissions have declined by over 40% over the past 20 years, and they continue to go down. Additionally, the current rule balances environmental protection with robust commercial and industrial activity, TFI stated in the release.

"Only two years ago the EPA confirmed that the current standard is protective of public health and the environment," Corey Rosenbusch, TFI president and CEO, said in the release. "They have not provided any reasoning as to what has changed in the past two years aside from the fact that these emissions continue to decline."

The current PM NAAQS was set in 2012 under the Obama administration and has dramatically reduced air pollution across the country. The biggest hurdle a lowered standard would create for the fertilizer industry is that as NAAQS levels have continued to be lowered and the industry continues to adapt through technology and innovation, there becomes a point where further air quality controls will not be able to achieve the reductions of a lowered NAAQS.

Implementing these lower thresholds for attainment will have the unintended consequence of reducing domestic fertilizer production if attainment in the U.S. becomes overly burdensome, Rosenbusch added.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. MAP is 18% lower, 10-34-0 is 19% less expensive, DAP is 23% lower, urea is 29% less expensive, UAN28 is 38% lower, UAN32 is 39% less expensive, potash is 40% lower and anhydrous is 42% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The global fertilizer market appears to be less volatile at the end of 2023 compared to a year earlier, according to a Rabobank Food and Agribusiness report. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Nov 14-18 2022	930	978	848	812
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022	902	939	807	779
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023	868	875	742	732
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023	840	857	694	693
Mar 6-Mar 10 2023	825	823	657	643
Apr 3-7 2023	818	809	642	625
May 1-5 2023	826	805	623	599
May 29-Jun 2 2023	824	832	620	622
June 26-30 2023	825	829	620	616
July 24-28 2023	795	791	594	581
Aug 21-25 2023	735	764	557	575
Sep 18-22 2023	702	757	501	566
Oct 16-20 2023	709	791	504	574
Nov 13-27 2023	717	811	511	574
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Nov 14-18 2022	753	1415	584	681
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022	750	1415	579	682
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023	754	1245	563	650
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023	755	1220	499	579
Mar 6-Mar 10 2023	740	1059	436	522
Apr 3-7 2023	740	1002	423	507
May 1-5 2023	739	926	424	507
May 29-Jun 2 2023	739	791	413	478
June 26-30 2023	731	753	396	468
July 24-28 2023	715	691	383	442
Aug 21-25 2023	698	622	355	399
Sep 18-22 2023	610	763	352	405
Oct 16-20 2023	612	809	356	418
Nov 13-27 2023	613	843	361	415

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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