DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to be mostly higher, according to prices tracked by DTN for the last week of October 2023.

Six of the eight major fertilizers were higher compared to last month. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

The only fertilizer with a considerably higher move was once again anhydrous, which was 5% higher compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $826 per ton.

Five other fertilizers were just slightly higher looking back a month. DAP had an average price of $713/ton, MAP $801/ton, 10-34-0 $611/ton, UAN28 $358/ton and UAN32 $415/ton.

MAP was back above the $800/ton level for the first time since the third week of July 2023. The price 15 weeks ago was $812/ton.

Two fertilizers were just slightly lower in price compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $508/ton while urea was at $573/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.50/lb.N, UAN28 $0.64/lb.N and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness recently released its semiannual fertilizer outlook titled "What is next?" Lead author Bruno Fonseca, senior analyst of farm inputs for Rabobank, wrote the fertilizer market seemed to be calmer in 2023 compared to 2022.

The report's models showed a recovery in global fertilizer usage in 2023 of being up 3%, compared to the 7% drop in 2022. Fertilizer usage in 2024 is forecasted to be up 5%.

"These figures align with our Affordability Index, which shows much better conditions for purchasing fertilizer than a year ago," the report stated.

Nutrients will certainly face some challenges in 2024.

The nitrogen market will struggle with lower demand from corn and wheat growers, according to the report. There could be some uncertainty in the natural gas market and related uncertainty in the production cost of nitrogen fertilizers.

The outlook for phosphates and potash looks to have some positives. The phosphate market could see increased supply with the return of Chinese MAP/DAP exports, while more supply could be seen in the potash market.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago: MAP by 18%, 10-34-0 by 20%, DAP by 23%, urea by 31%, both UAN28 and UAN32 by 39%, potash by 41% and anhydrous is 42% cheaper.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

USDA announced 17 new projects that will receive funds from the government to increase domestic fertilizer production, according to a USDA press release. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022	930	981	857	826
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022	926	960	831	795
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	885	891	765	751
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023	855	865	714	708
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023	836	834	673	666
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023	821	812	645	627
Apr 17-21 2023	826	812	643	626
May 15-19 2023	829	831	627	619
June 12-16 2023	823	832	621	624
July 10-14 2023	811	823	614	609
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023	758	764	566	576
Sep 4-8 2023	738	745	518	563
Oct 2-6 2023	705	791	508	573
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023	713	801	508	573
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022	759	1426	583	680
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022	753	1416	583	681
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	751	1325	573	679
Jan 23-Jan 27 2023	754	1237	523	630
Feb 20-Feb 24 2023	741	1124	470	554
Mar 20-Mar 24 2023	740	1036	429	514
Apr 17-21 2023	740	995	423	507
May 15-19 2023	739	895	421	514
June 12-16 2023	737	781	406	476
July 10-14 2023	730	734	393	465
Aug 7-Aug 11 2023	714	634	369	400
Sep 4-8 2023	611	693	356	390
Oct 2-6 2023	609	790	354	414
Oct 30-Nov 3 2023	611	826	358	415

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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