DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- A new month but an old trend continues. Retail fertilizer sellers tracked by DTN for the first full week of June 2023 show the vast majority of prices are still lower compared to a month ago.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers were less expensive than last month. Only three fertilizers were noticeably cheaper. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Anhydrous was 14% lower compared to the prior month, and the nitrogen fertilizer had an average price was $787/ton. UAN32 was 8% less expensive than last month with an average price of $478/ton, while urea was 6% lower with an average price of $622/ton.

Four other fertilizers were slightly lower compared to last month. DAP had an average price of $822/ton, potash $618/ton, 10-34-0 $739/ton and UAN28 $411/ton.

Just one fertilizer was slightly more expensive compared to a month ago. MAP had an average price of $832/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.68/lb.N, anhydrous $0.48/lb.N, UAN28 $0.73/lb.N and UAN32 $0.75/lb.N.

During 2023, retail fertilizer prices have continuously declined. With the exception of one week, every week in the calendar year has seen more fertilizers with lower prices than with higher prices.

Since the first of the year was about the time fertilizers began to decline significantly, I thought it would be interesting to see how much prices have dropped in the last six months or so.

The most obvious decline in retail fertilizer prices during this time would be anhydrous.

The first week of January 2023, the nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $1,302/ton. With an average price of $787/ton the first week of June, the nitrogen fertilizer has seen the price fall $515/ton during the year, the largest decline of the eight major fertilizers.

Another four had triple-digit price declines, but nothing like anhydrous. -- UAN32 had a drop of $195/ton ($673/ton first week Jan. 2023 to $478/ton first week of June 2023)

-- UAN28 $162/ton ($573/ton to $411/ton)

-- Potash $134/ton ($752/ton to $618/ton)

-- Urea $117/ton ($739/ton to $622/ton)

The remaining three fertilizers had just slight price declines during 2023.

-- DAP fell $54/ton ($876/ton to $822/ton)

-- MAP $47/ton ($879/ton to $832/ton)

-- 10-34-0 $15/ton ($754/ton to $739/ton)

The good news is retail fertilizer prices have pulled back considerably during 2023.

The bad news is prices have not declined enough to return to before fall 2021 levels, when various global supply issues started prices on a year-and-a-half long march higher.

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year ago. 10-34-0 is 18% less expensive, DAP is 22% lower, MAP is 23% less expensive, potash is 30% lower, both UAN28 and UAN32 are 35% less expensive, urea is 36% lower and anhydrous is 48% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The Purdue University/CME Ag Barometer fell to its weakest reading since 2022, thanks to lower commodity prices. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022	1057	1077	880	977
Jul 4-8 2022	1038	1053	885	866
Aug 1-5 2022	1003	1036	883	812
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022	952	1022	877	804
Sep 26-30 2022	947	1005	874	812
Oct 24-28 2022	930	986	862	827
Nov 21-25 2022	927	972	841	802
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	890	909	790	757
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	859	865	721	712
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023	838	857	692	686
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023	825	821	655	638
Apr 10-14 2023	821	809	642	625
May 8-12 2023	828	826	627	664
June 5-9 2023	822	832	618	622
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022	905	1518	633	731
Jul 4-8 2022	904	1466	609	702
Aug 1-5 2022	892	1387	592	679
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022	866	1364	576	671
Sep 26-30 2022	861	1380	581	670
Oct 24-28 2022	759	1422	580	678
Nov 21-25 2022	753	1419	583	681
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022	751	1360	578	681
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023	755	1238	536	634
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023	754	1213	483	572
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023	740	1059	428	521
Apr 10-14 2023	740	1003	427	507
May 8-12 2023	739	910	423	517
June 5-9 2023	739	787	411	478

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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