DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Anhydrous, UAN Fertilizer Prices Move Even Lower

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Anhydrous prices led the way lower in the week ended March 10, now 13% lower than last month. UAN28 was also 13% lower. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue on their path lower, according to prices tracked by DTN for the first full week of March 2023. This welcome trend has been in place for over two months.

All eight of the major fertilizer prices are once again lower compared to last month. Five of the eight fertilizers had a considerable price decline. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way lower were both anhydrous and UAN28. Anhydrous was 13% lower compared to last month and had an average price of $1,059/ton while UAN28 was also 13% less expensive and had an average price of $436/ton.

UAN32 was 10% lower looking back a month and had an average price was $522/ton. Urea was 7% less expensive compared to the previous month with an average price of $643/ton. Potash was 5% lower compared to last month with an average price of $657/ton.

The remaining three fertilizers were all just slightly lower compared to the prior month. DAP had an average price of $825/ton, MAP $823/ton and 10-34-0 $740/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.70/lb.N, anhydrous $0.65/lb.N, UAN28 $0.78/lb.N and UAN32 $0.82/lb.N.

In a presentation at the 2023 University of Minnesota Extension Nutrient Management Conference, University of Minnesota Extension Agricultural Economist Bill Lazarus discussed the economics of fertilizer.

Prices moved higher last year due to several supply-side reasons, including high natural gas prices, export restrictions in China and the Ukraine conflict. As we moved into 2023, nutrient prices have begun to decline, but prices are still high, he said.

"Fertilizer prices are coming down, which is good," Lazarus said.

Lazarus said a colleague of his at Kansas State University (Gregg Ibendahl) attempts to predict where anhydrous prices could go by creating a model which includes such factors as corn prices, crude oil prices and inflation. While the run-up in prices last year caused the model to be less accurate, the model currently shows anhydrous prices for the rest of 2023 to be just under $1,000/ton.

"It really doesn't do a bad job of predicting prices," he said.

To watch to the entire presentation, click on the following link: https://www.youtube.com/…

All fertilizers are now lower double digits compared to one year ago. DAP is 10% less expensive, MAP is 14% lower, 10-34-0 are 15% less expensive, potash is 20% lower, UAN32 is 26% less expensive, UAN28 is 28% lower and both urea and anhydrous are now 29% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

As long as commodity prices stay strong, fertilizer prices will too, according to a fertilizer company economist. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Mar 7-11 2022 919 955 822 901
Apr 4-8 2022 1040 1056 875 1031
May 2-6 2022 1057 1081 881 1001
May 30-Jun 3 2022 1056 1079 880 979
Jun 27-Jul 1 2022 1039 1053 885 867
Jul 25-20 2022 1005 1041 887 836
Aug 22-26 2022 972 1026 880 804
Sep 19-23 2022 950 1005 875 811
Oct 17-21 2022 930 986 863 826
Nov 14-18 2022 930 978 848 812
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022 902 939 807 779
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023 868 875 742 732
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023 840 857 694 693
Mar 6-Mar 10 825 823 657 643
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Mar 7-11 2022 866 1490 603 704
Apr 4-8 2022 901 1534 629 729
May 2-6 2022 906 1534 631 730
May 30-Jun 3 2022 905 1529 633 731
Jun 27-Jul 1 2022 904 1466 611 702
Jul 25-20 2022 894 1431 596 693
Aug 22-26 2022 869 1331 575 676
Sep 19-23 2022 860 1376 578 670
Oct 17-21 2022 759 1419 576 678
Nov 14-18 2022 753 1415 584 681
Dec 12-Dec 16 2022 750 1415 579 682
Jan 9-Jan 13 2023 754 1245 563 650
Feb 6-Feb 10 2023 755 1220 499 579
Mar 6-Mar 10 740 1059 436 522

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn