DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Retail Fertilizer Prices Fall to Lowest Level in 15 Months

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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: The average retail price of potash declined 9% from this time last month to $721 per ton, the lowest price level since the third week of October 2021. It's 11% less expensive than at this time last year. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most average retail fertilizer prices were lower the third week of January 2023, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. Prices have moved considerably lower in recent weeks.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers are lower in price compared to last month. Of these seven, the prices of six fertilizers were significantly lower, which DTN designates as a change of 5% or more.

Both potash and anhydrous were down 9% compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $721 per ton, while anhydrous had an average price of $1,238/ton.

Both UAN28 and UAN32 were down 7% compared to last month. UAN28 had an average price of $536/ton, while UAN32 was $634/ton.

Urea was 6% less expensive, and MAP was 5% lower. Urea had an average price of $712/ton, while MAP was at $865/ton.

One fertilizer was just slightly lower in price compared to a month earlier. DAP had an average price of $859/ton.

One fertilizer was slightly higher in price compared to last month. 10-34-0 had an average price of $755/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.77/lb.N, anhydrous $0.76/lb.N, UAN28 $0.96/lb.N and UAN32 $0.99/lb.N.

Prices had been trending lower for months, but they've dropped considerably in recent weeks.

But by how much?

Looking back in DTN's fertilizer data, prices for all eight major fertilizers are essentially at the same level they were in the fall of 2021 -- right before the beginning of the run-up in prices, which lasted for a full year and a half.

DAP is now at $859/ton, the lowest price since the second week of December 2021 when the price was at $858/ton. MAP is now at $865/ton, the lowest price since the third week of October 2021 when the price was at $863/ton.

Potash is now at $721/ton, the lowest price since the third week of October 2021 when the price was at $716/ton. Urea is now at $712/ton, the least expensive it has been since the first week of October 2021 when the price was at $653/ton.

10-34-0 is at $755/ton now, its lowest price since the third week of October 2021 when the price was also at $755/ton. Anhydrous is currently at $1,238/ton, the least-expensive price since -- yes, you guessed it -- the third week of October 2021 when the price was at $1,220/ton.

UAN28 is at $536/ton now, the lowest price since the third week of October 2021 when the average price was at $458/ton. And UAN32 is currently at $634/ton, the lowest price since the second week of October 2021 when the price was at $614/ton.

So, finally, some good news for producers in the retail fertilizer markets, as these are the lowest prices we have seen in roughly 15 months. This is especially true for those farmers who are still in the market for their fertilizer needs for the 2023 growing season.

All fertilizers are now lower compared to one year ago. DAP is 1% lower, 10-34-0 is 6% less expensive, both MAP and UAN32 are 7% lower, UAN28 is 8% less expensive, potash is 11% lower, anhydrous 14% less expensive and urea is 22% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

Natural gas prices have dropped in recent months around the world, but the price is still fairly high in California, according to Dow Jones. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DTN recently published a series titled "Global Fertilizer Outlook". Here would be those articles:

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 1, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 2, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 3, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Jan 17-21 2022 863 932 807 916
Feb 14-18 2022 874 935 815 891
Mar 14-18 2022 970 1001 843 954
Apr 11-15 2022 1047 1071 875 1017
May 9-13 2022 1059 1083 881 1000
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022 1057 1077 880 977
Jul 4-8 2022 1038 1053 885 866
Aug 1-5 2022 1003 1036 883 812
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022 952 1022 877 804
Sep 26-30 2022 947 1005 874 812
Oct 24-28 2022 930 986 862 827
Nov 21-25 2022 927 972 841 802
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022 890 909 790 757
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023 859 865 721 712
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Jan 17-21 2022 800 1433 585 683
Feb 14-18 2022 837 1488 603 703
Mar 14-18 2022 876 1520 610 706
Apr 11-15 2022 906 1534 630 730
May 9-13 2022 906 1529 634 730
Jun 6-Jun 10 2022 905 1518 633 731
Jul 4-8 2022 904 1466 609 702
Aug 1-5 2022 892 1387 592 679
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022 866 1364 576 671
Sep 26-30 2022 861 1380 581 670
Oct 24-28 2022 759 1422 580 678
Nov 21-25 2022 753 1419 583 681
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022 751 1360 578 681
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023 755 1238 536 634

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn