DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

All Retail Fertilizer Prices Lower at Start of 2023, With Half Down Significantly

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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The average retail price of MAP the first week of January 2023 was $879 per ton, down 8% from one month ago. MAP is now 6% less expensive than one year ago. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for all eight major fertilizers were lower the first week of January 2023 compared to last month, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. This is the third straight week prices have been down from the previous month.

And for the second consecutive week, prices for half of the fertilizers were down substantially from last month. DTN designates a considerable move as anything 5% or more.

Both MAP and potash were 8% lower compared to last month. MAP had an average price of $879 per ton, while potash was at $752/ton.

Urea was 6% less expensive than last month, and the nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $739/ton. DAP was 5% lower compared to last month, and the phosphorus fertilizer had an average price of $876/ton.

The remaining four fertilizers were slightly less expensive looking back to last month. 10-34-0 had an average price of $754/ton, anhydrous $1,302/ton, UAN28 $573/ton and UAN32 $673/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.80/lb.N, anhydrous $0.79/lb.N, UAN28 $1.02/lb.N and UAN32 $1.05/lb.N.

The supply of fertilizer is readily available, and farmers should communicate their needs to their fertilizer retailers, according to one speaker at the DTN Virtual Ag Summit in December.

Kreg Ruhl, vice-president of Crop Nutrients for Growmark FS, said if farmers are concerned about fertilizer availability this spring, they shouldn't be, as nutrients seem to be in good supply. Good communication with fertilizer retailers will help to assure farmers receive their fertilizer needs this spring, he said.

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One wild card with both fertilizer price and availability would be logistic snafus. Ruhl said issues with both low Mississippi River levels and a possible rail strike would derail both the current ample supplies and the recent lower prices.

"The Mississippi River is going to need rains, something we can't really control," Ruhl said. "This would be a real concern."

The domestic fertilizer supply picture is really controlled by three main components, he said.

First is the physical supply of fertilizer, which appears to be set with the spring application season rapidly approaching. The second factor is logistics, which would include low river levels and rail issues.

The final supply component is regional or local bottlenecks. An example of this could be an area seeing many farmers putting on anhydrous at one time, thus affecting both supply and price.

Ruhl said the fertilizer market is globally driven but locally decided. Anticipate what you need, where you need it, when you need it and tell your fertilizer supplier of your plans, he said.

Fertilizers are now mostly lower than one year earlier. This week, seven fertilizers are lower while only one is still higher.

UAN32 is 1% lower, UAN28 is 2% less expensive, 10-34-0 is 5% lower, MAP is 6% less expensive, potash is 7% lower, anhydrous is 9% less and urea is 19% lower looking back to a year prior.

One fertilizer is still more expensive compared to last year. DAP is 1% higher looking back a year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

Farmers will be seeing higher input prices in the New Year, which will put pressure on farm income, according to a Kansas State University Extension agricultural economist. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DTN recently published a series titled "Global Fertilizer Outlook." Here are those articles:

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 1, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 2, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

To see Global Fertilizer Outlook - 3, go to: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Jan 3-7 2022 863 931 807 913
Jan 31-Feb 4 2022 877 933 813 905
Feb 28-Mar 4 2022 879 937 815 887
Mar 28-Apr 1 2022 1033 1045 868 1022
Apr 25-29 2022 1049 1082 881 1004
May 23-27 2022 1056 1082 879 989
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022 1040 1058 885 902
Jul 18-22 2022 1007 1043 887 836
Aug 15-19 2022 978 1026 881 807
Sep 12-16 2022 952 1009 877 808
Oct 10-14 2022 925 986 863 824
Nov 7-11 2022 931 980 853 812
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022 920 950 819 784
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023 876 879 752 739
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Jan 3-7 2022 795 1430 584 679
Jan 31-Feb 4 2022 826 1487 600 699
Feb 28-Mar 4 2022 837 1487 603 703
Mar 28-Apr 1 2022 896 1526 637 711
Apr 25-29 2022 906 1534 631 730
May 23-27 2022 906 1531 634 731
Jun 20-Jun 24 2022 905 1497 616 716
Jul 18-22 2022 894 1431 598 696
Aug 15-19 2022 878 1336 576 676
Sep 12-16 2022 861 1369 578 665
Oct 10-14 2022 759 1417 576 670
Nov 7-11 2022 758 1434 582 680
Dec 5-Dec 9 2022 751 1415 581 681
Jan 2-Jan 6 2023 754 1302 573 673

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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Russ Quinn