DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- For the second week in a row, retail fertilizer prices have shifted considerably lower, according to locations tracked by DTN for the final week of December 2022. All eight major fertilizers are once again less expensive compared to last month.

Half of the fertilizers were significantly lower compared to last month. DTN designates a substantial move as anything 5% or more.

Potash was 8% lower compared to last month with an average price of $765/ton. MAP was 7% less expensive with an average price of $891/ton.

Both urea and anhydrous are 6% less expensive looking back to last month. Urea had an average price of $751/ton while anhydrous was at $1,325/ton.

The remaining four fertilizers were slightly less expensive looking back to the prior month. DAP had an average price of $885/ton, 10-34-0 $751/ton, UAN28 $573/ton and UAN32 $679/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.82/lb.N, anhydrous $0.81/lb.N, UAN28 $1.02/lb.N and UAN32 $1.06/lb.N.

Farmers will be seeing higher input prices in the New Year which will put pressure on farm income, according to a Kansas State University (KSU) Extension agricultural economist. In a KSU news release titled "Kansas net farm income holding steady in 2022 but next year could be tougher" (https://www.ksre.k-state.edu/…), KSU Extension ag economist Gregory Ibendahl said farmers should be cautious heading into 2023 with rising input prices, led by fertilizer, and continuing drought concerns.

"Going into 2022, (the agriculture industry) was definitely in an environment of higher input prices; but I think a lot of farmers were able to lock in (lower prices) for some of those inputs before they went very high," Ibendahl said. "So, I don't think farmers fully felt the effect of higher prices in 2022."

The full brunt of higher input prices will most likely be felt in the 2023 growing season. Ibendahl said the cost of anhydrous topped $1,500/ton in 2022. Farmers should be prepared for four-digit anhydrous costs to stick around through 2023, he said.

"Based on my models, I think we're going to be looking at $1,200/ton to $1,500/ton for the next year or two, so it's going to be pretty high and I don't think there's going to be any way to avoid it like some farmers did the past year," he said.

Fertilizers are now mixed in price from one year earlier. This week, six fertilizers are lower while the other two are higher.

UAN32 is 1% higher compared to last year while DAP is 3% more expensive. UAN28 is 2% lower, MAP is 4% less expensive, both 10-34-0 and potash are 6% lower, anhydrous is 7% less expensive and urea is 18% lower looking back to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A recent poll from DTN asking if farmers have purchased fertilizer already for the 2023 growing season showed three-fourths of respondents had. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 27-31 2021	864	931	809	911
Jan 24-28 2022	877	936	814	910
Feb 21-25 2022	874	934	815	885
Mar 21-25 2022	1014	1018	850	976
Apr 18-22 2022	1050	1079	879	1012
May 16-20 2022	1059	1083	878	993
Jun 13-Jun 17 2022	1046	1074	879	961
Jul 11-15 2022	1030	1052	885	861
Aug 8-12 2022	982	1032	881	812
Sep 5-9 2022	952	1009	878	800
Oct 3-7 2022	934	997	869	826
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022	930	981	857	826
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022	926	960	831	795
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	885	891	765	751
LIQUID
Dec 27-31 2021	795	1428	583	679
Jan 24-28 2022	817	1492	601	699
Feb 21-25 2022	837	1488	602	703
Mar 21-25 2022	881	1523	622	698
Apr 18-22 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 16-20 2022	906	1529	634	731
Jun 13-Jun 17 2022	905	1516	630	730
Jul 11-15 2022	904	1449	606	701
Aug 8-12 2022	881	1365	578	678
Sep 5-9 2022	866	1357	579	658
Oct 3-7 2022	813	1390	565	652
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022	759	1426	583	680
Nov 28-Dec 2 2022	753	1416	583	681
Dec 26-Dec 30 2022	751	1325	573	679

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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