DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Most Fertilizer Prices Continue Upward Climb
OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for most fertilizers continued to climb the second full week of February 2022, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. For the second week in a row, prices of all but one of the major fertilizers were higher compared to last month.
Seven of the eight major fertilizer prices were higher, with one fertilizer up a considerable amount, which DTN designates as anything 5% or more.
The average retail price of 10-34-0 was 5% more expensive compared to a month ago. The starter fertilizer had an average price of $837 per ton.
DAP had an average price of $874/ton compared to last month, MAP $935/ton, potash $815/ton, anhydrous $1,488/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $603/ton (all-time high) and UAN32 $703/ton (all-time high).
UAN32 was $700 per ton for the first in the history of the DTN dataset. This is an all-time-high price for the liquid nitrogen fertilizer.
One fertilizer was lower in price from the prior month. Urea was slightly lower with an average price of $891/ton.
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.97/lb.N, anhydrous $0.91/lb.N, UAN28 $1.08/lb.N and UAN32 $1.10/lb.N.
Kansas State University Extension Agricultural Economist Gregg Ibendahl recently wrote a paper titled "What's Up With Fertilizer Prices," (https://www.agmanager.info/…). He looks at some of the issues relating to why fertilizer prices are climbing higher.
Ibendahl has a model to predict what retail fertilizer prices should be, based on various factors from oil prices to corn prices to inflation expectations. The models say anhydrous prices should be around $1,000/ton right now, and obviously, the actual price is closer to $1,500/ton.
"The main question, then, is whether or not this increase is of a more lasting nature, or is the increase a temporary phenomenon?" Ibendahl wrote. "If it is the former, then the model is missing a key piece or pieces for the independent variable. If it is the latter, then anhydrous prices could decline substantially during 2022."
The best estimate is the price rise is somewhat temporary, as prices may decline more slowly than they rose. A rapid price rise and decline in fertilizer has happened before, he wrote.
Ibendahl wrote other possible considerations will also influence fertilizer prices.
A Russia-Ukraine military conflict could completely alter the oil prices outlook and cause fertilizer prices to move higher. And COVID-19 continues to affect the supply chain to some extent, he wrote.
Most fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in price than one year earlier.
MAP is now 44% more expensive, DAP is 46% higher, 10-34-0 is 60% more expensive, urea is 95% higher, potash is 102% more expensive, UAN32 is 144% higher, UAN28 146% is more expensive and anhydrous is 181% higher compared to last year.
DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….
The recent DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series focused attention on what the world expectation could be in 2022. This series examined the supply and demand of nutrients globally as well as what direction fertilizer prices could go in the New Year.
Read the nitrogen outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Read the phosphorus outlook here:
Read the potash outlook here:
|Feb 15-19 2021||600||648||404||457|
|Mar 15-19 2021||616||693||424||496|
|Apr 12-16 2021||624||702||432||509|
|May 10-14 2021||631||702||437||515|
|Jun 7-11 2021||656||717||450||527|
|Jul 5-9 2021||690||729||491||549|
|Aug 2-6 2021||695||755||557||556|
|Aug 30-Sep 3 2021||697||756||571||557|
|Sep 27-Oct 1 2021||722||800||647||620|
|Oct 25-29 2021||812||873||731||751|
|Nov 22-26 2021||830||915||775||868|
|Dec 20-24 2021||862||932||807||910|
|Jan 17-21 2022||863||932||807||916|
|Feb 14-18 2022||874||935||815||891|
|Feb 15-19 2021||522||530||245||288|
|Mar 15-19 2021||596||671||331||373|
|Apr 12-16 2021||609||700||345||387|
|May 10-14 2021||620||713||361||406|
|Jun 7-11 2021||620||718||363||414|
|Jul 5-9 2021||624||732||371||421|
|Aug 2-6 2021||631||738||367||418|
|Aug 30-Sep 3 2021||632||749||371||420|
|Sep 27-Oct 1 2021||638||782||388||444|
|Oct 25-29 2021||663||982||458||522|
|Nov 22-26 2021||755||1308||574||660|
|Dec 20-24 2021||791||1424||583||679|
|Jan 17-21 2022||800||1433||585||683|
|Feb 14-18 2022||837||1488||603||703|
Russ Quinn can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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