DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for most fertilizers continued to climb the second full week of February 2022, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. For the second week in a row, prices of all but one of the major fertilizers were higher compared to last month.

Seven of the eight major fertilizer prices were higher, with one fertilizer up a considerable amount, which DTN designates as anything 5% or more.

The average retail price of 10-34-0 was 5% more expensive compared to a month ago. The starter fertilizer had an average price of $837 per ton.

DAP had an average price of $874/ton compared to last month, MAP $935/ton, potash $815/ton, anhydrous $1,488/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $603/ton (all-time high) and UAN32 $703/ton (all-time high).

UAN32 was $700 per ton for the first in the history of the DTN dataset. This is an all-time-high price for the liquid nitrogen fertilizer.

One fertilizer was lower in price from the prior month. Urea was slightly lower with an average price of $891/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.97/lb.N, anhydrous $0.91/lb.N, UAN28 $1.08/lb.N and UAN32 $1.10/lb.N.

Kansas State University Extension Agricultural Economist Gregg Ibendahl recently wrote a paper titled "What's Up With Fertilizer Prices," (https://www.agmanager.info/…). He looks at some of the issues relating to why fertilizer prices are climbing higher.

Ibendahl has a model to predict what retail fertilizer prices should be, based on various factors from oil prices to corn prices to inflation expectations. The models say anhydrous prices should be around $1,000/ton right now, and obviously, the actual price is closer to $1,500/ton.

"The main question, then, is whether or not this increase is of a more lasting nature, or is the increase a temporary phenomenon?" Ibendahl wrote. "If it is the former, then the model is missing a key piece or pieces for the independent variable. If it is the latter, then anhydrous prices could decline substantially during 2022."

The best estimate is the price rise is somewhat temporary, as prices may decline more slowly than they rose. A rapid price rise and decline in fertilizer has happened before, he wrote.

Ibendahl wrote other possible considerations will also influence fertilizer prices.

A Russia-Ukraine military conflict could completely alter the oil prices outlook and cause fertilizer prices to move higher. And COVID-19 continues to affect the supply chain to some extent, he wrote.

Most fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in price than one year earlier.

MAP is now 44% more expensive, DAP is 46% higher, 10-34-0 is 60% more expensive, urea is 95% higher, potash is 102% more expensive, UAN32 is 144% higher, UAN28 146% is more expensive and anhydrous is 181% higher compared to last year.

DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The recent DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series focused attention on what the world expectation could be in 2022. This series examined the supply and demand of nutrients globally as well as what direction fertilizer prices could go in the New Year.

Read the nitrogen outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Read the phosphorus outlook here:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Read the potash outlook here:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Feb 15-19 2021	600	648	404	457
Mar 15-19 2021	616	693	424	496
Apr 12-16 2021	624	702	432	509
May 10-14 2021	631	702	437	515
Jun 7-11 2021	656	717	450	527
Jul 5-9 2021	690	729	491	549
Aug 2-6 2021	695	755	557	556
Aug 30-Sep 3 2021	697	756	571	557
Sep 27-Oct 1 2021	722	800	647	620
Oct 25-29 2021	812	873	731	751
Nov 22-26 2021	830	915	775	868
Dec 20-24 2021	862	932	807	910
Jan 17-21 2022	863	932	807	916
Feb 14-18 2022	874	935	815	891
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Feb 15-19 2021	522	530	245	288
Mar 15-19 2021	596	671	331	373
Apr 12-16 2021	609	700	345	387
May 10-14 2021	620	713	361	406
Jun 7-11 2021	620	718	363	414
Jul 5-9 2021	624	732	371	421
Aug 2-6 2021	631	738	367	418
Aug 30-Sep 3 2021	632	749	371	420
Sep 27-Oct 1 2021	638	782	388	444
Oct 25-29 2021	663	982	458	522
Nov 22-26 2021	755	1308	574	660
Dec 20-24 2021	791	1424	583	679
Jan 17-21 2022	800	1433	585	683
Feb 14-18 2022	837	1488	603	703

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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