DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Most Fertilizer Prices Continue Upward Climb

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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At $837 per ton, the average retail price of 10-34-0 was 5% more expensive the second full week of February 2022 than it was a month ago. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for most fertilizers continued to climb the second full week of February 2022, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. For the second week in a row, prices of all but one of the major fertilizers were higher compared to last month.

Seven of the eight major fertilizer prices were higher, with one fertilizer up a considerable amount, which DTN designates as anything 5% or more.

The average retail price of 10-34-0 was 5% more expensive compared to a month ago. The starter fertilizer had an average price of $837 per ton.

DAP had an average price of $874/ton compared to last month, MAP $935/ton, potash $815/ton, anhydrous $1,488/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $603/ton (all-time high) and UAN32 $703/ton (all-time high).

UAN32 was $700 per ton for the first in the history of the DTN dataset. This is an all-time-high price for the liquid nitrogen fertilizer.

One fertilizer was lower in price from the prior month. Urea was slightly lower with an average price of $891/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.97/lb.N, anhydrous $0.91/lb.N, UAN28 $1.08/lb.N and UAN32 $1.10/lb.N.

Kansas State University Extension Agricultural Economist Gregg Ibendahl recently wrote a paper titled "What's Up With Fertilizer Prices," (https://www.agmanager.info/…). He looks at some of the issues relating to why fertilizer prices are climbing higher.

Ibendahl has a model to predict what retail fertilizer prices should be, based on various factors from oil prices to corn prices to inflation expectations. The models say anhydrous prices should be around $1,000/ton right now, and obviously, the actual price is closer to $1,500/ton.

"The main question, then, is whether or not this increase is of a more lasting nature, or is the increase a temporary phenomenon?" Ibendahl wrote. "If it is the former, then the model is missing a key piece or pieces for the independent variable. If it is the latter, then anhydrous prices could decline substantially during 2022."

The best estimate is the price rise is somewhat temporary, as prices may decline more slowly than they rose. A rapid price rise and decline in fertilizer has happened before, he wrote.

Ibendahl wrote other possible considerations will also influence fertilizer prices.

A Russia-Ukraine military conflict could completely alter the oil prices outlook and cause fertilizer prices to move higher. And COVID-19 continues to affect the supply chain to some extent, he wrote.

Most fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in price than one year earlier.

MAP is now 44% more expensive, DAP is 46% higher, 10-34-0 is 60% more expensive, urea is 95% higher, potash is 102% more expensive, UAN32 is 144% higher, UAN28 146% is more expensive and anhydrous is 181% higher compared to last year.

DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

The recent DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series focused attention on what the world expectation could be in 2022. This series examined the supply and demand of nutrients globally as well as what direction fertilizer prices could go in the New Year.

Read the nitrogen outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Read the phosphorus outlook here:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Read the potash outlook here:

https://www.dtnpf.com/…

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Feb 15-19 2021 600 648 404 457
Mar 15-19 2021 616 693 424 496
Apr 12-16 2021 624 702 432 509
May 10-14 2021 631 702 437 515
Jun 7-11 2021 656 717 450 527
Jul 5-9 2021 690 729 491 549
Aug 2-6 2021 695 755 557 556
Aug 30-Sep 3 2021 697 756 571 557
Sep 27-Oct 1 2021 722 800 647 620
Oct 25-29 2021 812 873 731 751
Nov 22-26 2021 830 915 775 868
Dec 20-24 2021 862 932 807 910
Jan 17-21 2022 863 932 807 916
Feb 14-18 2022 874 935 815 891
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Feb 15-19 2021 522 530 245 288
Mar 15-19 2021 596 671 331 373
Apr 12-16 2021 609 700 345 387
May 10-14 2021 620 713 361 406
Jun 7-11 2021 620 718 363 414
Jul 5-9 2021 624 732 371 421
Aug 2-6 2021 631 738 367 418
Aug 30-Sep 3 2021 632 749 371 420
Sep 27-Oct 1 2021 638 782 388 444
Oct 25-29 2021 663 982 458 522
Nov 22-26 2021 755 1308 574 660
Dec 20-24 2021 791 1424 583 679
Jan 17-21 2022 800 1433 585 683
Feb 14-18 2022 837 1488 603 703

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn