DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to rise but at smaller percentages, according to prices for the last week of December 2021.

Only two fertilizers were up a considerable amount. DTN designates a substantial move as anything 5% or more.

Leading the way higher was anhydrous, up 9% from a month prior. The nitrogen fertilizer's average price was $1,428/ton, which continues to be the all-time high in the DTN data set.

10-34-0 was 5% more expensive compared to last month. The starter fertilizer's average price was at $795/ton.

The remaining six fertilizers had just slight price increases compared to the prior month. DAP had an average price of $864/ton, MAP $931/ton, potash $809/ton, urea $911/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $583/ton (all-time high) and UAN32 $679/ton (all-time high).

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.99/lb.N, anhydrous $0.87/lb.N, UAN28 $1.04/lb.N and UAN32 $1.06/lb.N.

Purdue University Extension recently released its 2022 Crop Cost and Return guide. No surprise here -- inputs are significantly higher, specifically fertilizer. (See https://ag.purdue.edu/…)

The Purdue guide is divided up between low productivity soil, average productivity soil and high productivity soil. Then, in each continuous corn, rotation of corn, rotation of soybeans, wheat and double-crop soybeans are the different cropping enterprises.

The fertilizer cost ranged from $61/acre on the low end (double-crop soybeans in the low productivity soils) to $316/acre (continuous corn in highly productivity soil). Rotation of corn was $257/acre on the low productivity soil, $272 in the average productivity soil to $286/acre in the high productivity soil.

Compared to the 2021 Crop Cost and Return Guide (https://ag.purdue.edu/…) which was released in February 2021, 2022 fertilizer costs are significantly higher.

The 2021 fertilizer cost estimate ranged from $32/ton to $141/ton. Rotation of corn ranged from $111/ton on low productivity soil, to $121/acre in the average productivity soil and $131/acre in the high productivity soil.

The estimated fertilizer cost increased $59/acre on the double-crop soybeans in low productivity soils to a whopping $220/acre in the continuous corn in high productivity soil from the 2021 to 2022 crop budget.

The increase in the three rotations of corn estimates was also fairly striking. In the low productivity soils the difference in the two years was a $146/acre increase, in average productivity soil it was a $151/acre difference and in high productivity soil it was $155/acre difference.

These crop cost and return guides from Purdue University Extension show with hard numbers farmers' 2022 fertilizer costs are about to double compared to the 2021 crops' nutrient costs.

Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly, with several fertilizers having well over 100% price increases.

10-34-0 is now 71% more expensive, MAP is 73% higher, DAP is 82% more expensive, potash is 121% higher, urea is 148% more expensive, UAN32 is 171% higher, UAN28 179% is more expensive and anhydrous is 204% higher compared to last year.

DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

With rising input prices, led by large increases in fertilizer prices, corn and soybean producers' profitability will depend largely on the continued strength of grain prices. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

The recent DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series focused attention to what the world expectation could be in 2022. This series examined the supply and demand of nutrients globally as well as what direction fertilizer prices could go in the New Year.

Read the nitrogen outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Read the phosphorus outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Read the potash outlook here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 28-Jan 1 2021	475	537	366	367
Jan 25-29 2021	500	580	379	405
Feb 22-26 2021	605	661	408	464
Mar 22-26 2021	616	696	428	499
Apr 19-23 2021	627	703	432	510
May 17-21 2021	642	708	440	521
Jun 14-18 2021	661	719	454	531
Jul 12-16 2021	693	730	501	550
Aug 9-13 2021	695	755	563	555
Sep 6-10 2021	699	757	575	558
Oct 4-8 2021	736	829	675	653
Nov 1-5 2021	814	900	750	820
Nov 29-Dec 3 2021	836	918	777	873
Dec 27-31 2021	864	931	809	911
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Dec 28-Jan 1 2021	464	470	209	250
Jan 25-29 2021	489	489	220	258
Feb 22-26 2021	532	544	250	296
Mar 22-26 2021	599	684	335	376
Apr 19-23 2021	612	707	348	391
May 17-21 2021	620	716	361	407
Jun 14-18 2021	621	719	365	414
Jul 12-16 2021	624	725	368	418
Aug 9-13 2021	630	740	366	418
Sep 6-10 2021	631	750	371	422
Oct 4-8 2021	639	803	400	456
Nov 1-5 2021	702	1113	545	604
Nov 29-Dec 3 2021	756	1313	575	661
Dec 27-31 2021	795	1428	583	679

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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